Concentrated Orange Juice Market

The article discusses the declining demand for concentrated orange juice globally, with forecasts showing a decrease in both consumption and production over the next eight years. In 2022, there was a slight increase in consumption after three years of decline, but overall trend remained flat. The United States, Brazil, and Mexico were the countries with highest consumption. Production also saw a gradual growth, with Brazil being the largest producer. Import and export trends were also analyzed, with Brazil leading in exports and the Netherlands being a major importer. The article provides detailed data on consumption, production, imports, and exports of concentrated orange juice worldwide from 2012 to 2022.

Market Forecast

Depressed by shrinking demand for concentrated orange juice worldwide, the market is expected to continue its downward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -3.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to depress the market volume to 1.7M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -0.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $3.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Concentrated Orange Juice

In 2022, after three years of decline, there was growth in consumption of concentrated orange juice, when its volume increased by 3.9% to 2.3M tons. Overall, consumption, however, recorded a slight contraction. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 3.5M tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global concentrated orange juice market revenue expanded remarkably to $4.2B in 2022, picking up by 9.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $5.8B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (572K tons), Brazil (300K tons) and Mexico (130K tons), with a combined 43% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Brazil (with a CAGR of +47.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($1.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Brazil ($522M). It was followed by Germany.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States stood at +3.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Brazil (+46.3% per year) and Germany (-6.1% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of concentrated orange juice per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (4.6 kg per person), followed by the United States (1.7 kg per person), France (1.6 kg per person) and Germany (1.5 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of concentrated orange juice was estimated at 0.3 kg per person.

In the Netherlands, concentrated orange juice per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-4.1% per year) and France (-7.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Concentrated Orange Juice

For the sixth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in production of concentrated orange juice, which increased by 2.8% to 2.4M tons in 2022. Overall, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 3.6%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, concentrated orange juice production expanded modestly to $3.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 16%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $3.7B. From 2021 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

Brazil (1.1M tons) remains the largest concentrated orange juice producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 45% of total volume. Moreover, concentrated orange juice production in Brazil exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (418K tons), threefold. Mexico (243K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 10% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Brazil amounted to +1.5%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+0.4% per year) and Mexico (-0.1% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Concentrated Orange Juice

In 2022, approx. 1.5M tons of concentrated orange juice were imported worldwide; reducing by -9.7% against 2021. Overall, imports saw a abrupt setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 15%. Global imports peaked at 3.6M tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, concentrated orange juice imports declined to $2.7B in 2022. In general, imports continue to indicate a noticeable decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 8.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $4.5B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (202K tons), the United States (173K tons), Germany (135K tons), China (109K tons) and France (109K tons) represented the main importer of concentrated orange juice in the world, mixing up 49% of total import. It was distantly followed by the UK (69K tons), constituting a 4.6% share of total imports. Japan (51K tons), Poland (44K tons), Spain (38K tons), Ireland (36K tons), Russia (34K tons), Canada (31K tons) and Belgium (30K tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest concentrated orange juice importing markets worldwide were the United States ($404M), the Netherlands ($377M) and Germany ($259M), together comprising 38% of global imports. France, China, the UK, Japan, Poland, Canada, Russia, Ireland, Spain and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Poland, with a CAGR of +3.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average concentrated orange juice import price amounted to $1,835 per ton, growing by 8.5% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.7%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the average import price increased by 28%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($2,765 per ton), while Belgium ($1,212 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+16.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Concentrated Orange Juice

In 2022, the amount of concentrated orange juice exported worldwide fell to 1.5M tons, with a decrease of -10.9% against the previous year's figure. Overall, exports continue to indicate a pronounced descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 5.5%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 2.5M tons. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, concentrated orange juice exports contracted slightly to $2.6B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports showed a perceptible reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 11%. The global exports peaked at $4.2B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Brazil represented the key exporting country with an export of about 768K tons, which resulted at 51% of total exports. It was distantly followed by the Netherlands (159K tons), Costa Rica (121K tons) and Mexico (113K tons), together generating a 26% share of total exports. Italy (47K tons), Spain (32K tons), Romania (25K tons), South Africa (25K tons), Israel (24K tons) and Saudi Arabia (23K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Brazil decreased at an average annual rate of -1.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Romania (+34.1%), Costa Rica (+29.5%) and Mexico (+6.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Romania emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +34.1% from 2012-2022. By contrast, South Africa (-1.2%), Saudi Arabia (-2.1%), Italy (-3.3%), Israel (-3.9%), the Netherlands (-4.0%) and Spain (-7.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Brazil, Costa Rica, Mexico and Romania increased by +12, +7.7, +4.8 and +1.6 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Brazil ($1.3B) remains the largest concentrated orange juice supplier worldwide, comprising 52% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Netherlands ($355M), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Mexico, with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Brazil stood at -3.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (-3.7% per year) and Mexico (+4.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average concentrated orange juice export price stood at $1,732 per ton in 2022, rising by 8.7% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $1,813 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($2,553 per ton), while Romania ($531 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+3.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform