Pork Market

The global pork market is expected to grow steadily over the next eight years, with a forecasted increase in consumption rates and market value. China leads in both consumption and production of pork, followed by the United States and Russia. The market saw continued growth in production and consumption in 2022, with varying trends in import and export volumes. Frozen pig meat was the primary type of pork exported, while frozen hams, shoulders, and cuts of pig meat saw the highest growth in export value. The average pork import price slightly declined in 2022, with variations in prices among different countries. Overall, the global pork market is poised for gradual growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for pork worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 129M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $599.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Pork (Meat Of Swine)

For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in consumption of pork, which increased by 1.2% to 122M tons in 2022. Overall, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

The global pork market revenue shrank slightly to $480.1B in 2022, reducing by -3.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $499.7B in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (57M tons) remains the largest pork consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 47% of total volume. Moreover, pork consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (11M tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Russia (4.5M tons), with a 3.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+1.6% per year) and Russia (+2.9% per year).

In value terms, China ($278.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($30.3B). It was followed by Japan.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +1.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+1.3% per year) and Japan (-0.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of pork per capita consumption in 2022 were Spain (65 kg per person), Poland (58 kg per person) and Germany (45 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Brazil (with a CAGR of +3.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Pork (Meat Of Swine)

For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in production of pork, which increased by 1.2% to 122M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, pork production contracted modestly to $473.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $494.8B in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of pork production was China (55M tons), comprising approx. 46% of total volume. Moreover, pork production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (12M tons), fivefold. Brazil (5.2M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+1.5% per year) and Brazil (+5.1% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average pork yield declined to 83 kg per head, reducing by -5.3% on 2021. In general, the yield, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the yield increased by 9.4% against the previous year. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 87 kg per head, and then dropped in the following year.

Producing Animals

In 2022, the number of animals slaughtered for pork production worldwide expanded remarkably to 1.5B heads, growing by 6.9% compared with 2021. Over the period under review, the number of producing animals saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the amount of producing animals attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports

World Imports of Pork (Meat Of Swine)

After seven years of growth, supplies from abroad of pork decreased by -8.3% to 13M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 14%. Global imports peaked at 14M tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, pork imports reduced to $34.5B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 19%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $38.4B in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the twelve major importers of pork, namely China, Mexico, Japan, Italy, Poland, Germany, South Korea, the United States, the Philippines, Romania, the UK and the Czech Republic, represented more than two-thirds of total import. The Netherlands (288K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +21.1%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($4.2B), China ($3.8B) and Mexico ($2.6B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 31% of global imports. Italy, South Korea, the United States, Poland, Germany, the UK, Romania, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

The Philippines, with a CAGR of +24.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2022, frozen pig meat other than cuts or carcases (5.3M tons) was the key type of pork, making up 42% of total imports. Fresh or chilled pig meat other than cuts or carcases (3.1M tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat (2.3M tons), fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat (1.2M tons) and frozen hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat (0.8M tons). All these products together took near 58% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for frozen hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat (with a CAGR of +6.2%), while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, frozen pig meat other than cuts or carcases ($14.9B), fresh or chilled pig meat other than cuts or carcases ($10.3B) and fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat ($5B) appeared to be the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 88% share of global imports. Fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat, frozen hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat and frozen carcases of pig meat lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 12%.

In terms of the main imported products, frozen hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat, with a CAGR of +5.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

The average pork import price stood at $2,690 per ton in 2022, falling by -2.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a slight setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 an increase of 8.8% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $3,011 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was fresh or chilled pig meat other than cuts or carcases ($3,280 per ton), while the price for fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat ($2,013 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by frozen pork carcase (+0.2%), while the other products experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average pork import price amounted to $2,690 per ton, with a decrease of -2.1% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a slight slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the average import price increased by 8.8% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $3,011 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($4,304 per ton), while the Philippines ($1,624 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Pork (Meat Of Swine)

In 2022, overseas shipments of pork decreased by -8.5% to 13M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 14M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, pork exports declined to $34.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 15%. The global exports peaked at $37.2B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Spain (2.1M tons), the United States (1.9M tons), Germany (1.5M tons), Denmark (1.1M tons), Canada (1.1M tons), Brazil (1M tons), the Netherlands (1M tons), Belgium (0.7M tons), France (0.5M tons) and Poland (0.4M tons) represented the main exporter of pork in the world, making up 88% of total export. Mexico (194K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Mexico (with a CAGR of +10.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest pork supplying countries worldwide were Spain ($6.1B), the United States ($5.4B) and Germany ($3.8B), with a combined 45% share of global exports. Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Brazil, Belgium, France, Poland and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 44%.

Mexico, with a CAGR of +7.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2022, frozen pig meat other than cuts or carcases (5.6M tons) was the key type of pork, comprising 44% of total exports. Fresh or chilled pig meat other than cuts or carcases (3.4M tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat (1.9M tons), fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat (1.1M tons) and frozen hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat (0.7M tons). All these products together held near 55% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exported products, was attained by frozen hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat (with a CAGR of +3.8%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of exported pork were frozen pig meat other than cuts or carcases ($15.7B), fresh or chilled pig meat other than cuts or carcases ($10.5B) and fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat ($4.1B), with a combined 89% share of global exports. Fresh or chilled carcases of pig meat, frozen hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat and frozen carcases of pig meat lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 11%.

Among the main exported products, frozen hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat, with a CAGR of +3.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average pork export price amounted to $2,682 per ton, leveling off at the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 an increase of 9.5% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $2,975 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was fresh or chilled pig meat other than cuts or carcases ($3,106 per ton), while the average price for exports of frozen hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat ($2,060 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by frozen pork carcase (+0.5%), while the other products experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Export Prices By Country

The average pork export price stood at $2,682 per ton in 2022, leveling off at the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the average export price increased by 9.5%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $2,975 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($4,212 per ton), while Belgium ($2,253 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+0.1%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform