Non-Cane Molasses Market

The global non-cane molasses market is projected to see a growth in both consumption and value over the next eight years. Market performance is forecasted to increase with a CAGR of +0.6% in volume and +7.3% in value from 2022 to 2030. Consumption of molasses (excluding cane molasses) increased in 2022 after a period of decline, with the largest consumers being China, the United States, and India. Production and imports of non-cane molasses also showed fluctuations, with the highest export prices recorded in 2022. Overall, the market is expected to see gradual growth in the immediate future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for molasses (excluding cane molasses) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 43M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +7.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $59.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Molasses (Excluding Cane Molasses)

After two years of decline, consumption of molasses (excluding cane molasses) increased by 4.5% to 41M tons in 2022. In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 41M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global non-cane molasses market value contracted remarkably to $33.6B in 2022, with a decrease of -18.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $41.1B in 2021, and then contracted markedly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (7M tons), the United States (3.9M tons) and India (2.6M tons), together accounting for 33% of global consumption. Pakistan, Russia, Japan, Nigeria, Turkey, Bangladesh, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +8.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($11.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Indonesia ($2.5B). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the non-cane molasses market remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (-0.1% per year) and the United States (+2.1% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of non-cane molasses per capita consumption in 2022 were Turkey (13 kg per person), the United States (12 kg per person) and Japan (10 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +5.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Molasses (Excluding Cane Molasses)

In 2022, production of molasses (excluding cane molasses) was finally on the rise to reach 41M tons after two years of decline. Overall, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 41M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, non-cane molasses production shrank to $35.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 32% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $40.3B, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (7M tons), the United States (3.9M tons) and India (2.6M tons), with a combined 33% share of global production. Russia, Pakistan, Japan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Brazil, Indonesia, Germany, Mexico and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +8.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Molasses (Excluding Cane Molasses)

In 2022, overseas purchases of molasses (excluding cane molasses) were finally on the rise to reach 2M tons after three years of decline. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a mild curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 14%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 2.7M tons. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, non-cane molasses imports surged to $471M in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Turkey (355K tons), followed by Belgium (219K tons), Hungary (197K tons), the UK (117K tons), Italy (102K tons), France (101K tons) and Canada (95K tons) were the major importers of molasses (excluding cane molasses), together committing 59% of total imports. The following importers - the Netherlands (89K tons), Latvia (67K tons), Portugal (53K tons), Germany (47K tons), Spain (44K tons) and Denmark (39K tons) - together made up 17% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Latvia (with a CAGR of +11.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest non-cane molasses importing markets worldwide were Turkey ($78M), Belgium ($50M) and Hungary ($37M), together accounting for 35% of global imports. The UK, Canada, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Germany, Denmark and Latvia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

Among the main importing countries, Latvia, with a CAGR of +15.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average non-cane molasses import price stood at $232 per ton in 2022, jumping by 17% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.9%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($277 per ton), while Latvia ($116 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+5.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Molasses (Excluding Cane Molasses)

In 2022, shipments abroad of molasses (excluding cane molasses) decreased by -8.1% to 1.9M tons, falling for the third year in a row after three years of growth. Overall, exports showed a slight setback. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 25% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 2.8M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, non-cane molasses exports stood at $394M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Russia (462K tons), distantly followed by Poland (218K tons), Germany (215K tons), Egypt (152K tons), the Netherlands (132K tons) and Belarus (104K tons) represented the main exporters of molasses (excluding cane molasses), together creating 68% of total exports. Belgium (65K tons), Ukraine (62K tons), Latvia (57K tons), Serbia (50K tons), Slovakia (44K tons), Austria (41K tons) and Lithuania (32K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to non-cane molasses exports from Russia stood at -2.8%. At the same time, Latvia (+105.5%), Austria (+27.9%), Belgium (+15.9%), Belarus (+14.4%), Poland (+4.8%), Egypt (+2.7%) and Slovakia (+2.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Latvia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +105.5% from 2012-2022. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.1%), Lithuania (-2.5%), Germany (-3.3%), Serbia (-4.1%) and Ukraine (-17.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Poland (+5.5 p.p.), Belarus (+4.3 p.p.), Latvia (+3 p.p.), Egypt (+2.9 p.p.), Belgium (+2.8 p.p.) and Austria (+2 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Germany, Russia and Ukraine saw its share reduced by -2%, -2.7% and -15.1% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest non-cane molasses supplying countries worldwide were Russia ($94M), Poland ($49M) and Germany ($44M), together accounting for 47% of global exports. The Netherlands, Egypt, Belarus, Austria, Slovakia, Ukraine, Serbia, Belgium, Latvia and Lithuania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

Latvia, with a CAGR of +90.5%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average non-cane molasses export price amounted to $210 per ton, with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the average export price increased by 17%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Austria ($251 per ton), while Belgium ($117 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belarus (+9.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform