Crude Coconut Oil Market

The article discusses the increasing demand for crude coconut oil worldwide, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.4% in consumption and +3.4% in market value from 2022 to 2030. The top consuming and producing countries are highlighted, along with trends in imports and exports. Overall, the market is expected to continue growing in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for crude coconut (copra) oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Crude Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2022, approx. 3.6M tons of crude coconut (copra) oil were consumed worldwide; leveling off at the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 7.9%. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 3.6M tons in 2019; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

The global crude coconut oil market value declined to $8.2B in 2022, shrinking by -1.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $8.4B in 2021, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the Philippines (700K tons), Indonesia (595K tons) and the Netherlands (377K tons), together comprising 47% of global consumption. Malaysia, India, the United States, Vietnam, Germany, Mexico and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Malaysia (with a CAGR of +7.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest crude coconut oil markets worldwide were the Philippines ($1.8B), India ($1.3B) and Vietnam ($859M), together accounting for 48% of the global market.

Vietnam, with a CAGR of +13.4%, saw the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of crude coconut oil per capita consumption in 2022 were the Netherlands (22 kg per person), Malaysia (11 kg per person) and the Philippines (6.2 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Malaysia (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Crude Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2022, global production of crude coconut (copra) oil shrank modestly to 3M tons, which is down by -2.2% against 2021 figures. In general, production saw a mild decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 4.7%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 3.5M tons. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, crude coconut oil production declined modestly to $9.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, showed a resilient expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the production volume increased by 65%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $11B. From 2020 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the Philippines (1M tons), Indonesia (891K tons) and India (342K tons), with a combined 75% share of global production. Vietnam, Mexico, Sri Lanka and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 14%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +4.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Crude Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2022, approx. 1.4M tons of crude coconut (copra) oil were imported worldwide; rising by 22% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 32% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, crude coconut oil imports surged to $2.4B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +129.7% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 62%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (400K tons) and Malaysia (324K tons) represented the major importers of crude coconut (copra) oilacross the globe, together accounting for near 53% of total imports. The United States (202K tons) ranks next in terms of the total imports with a 15% share, followed by Germany (11%) and Italy (4.7%). The following importers - Indonesia (53K tons) and Spain (48K tons) - each finished at a 7.4% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +9.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest crude coconut oil importing markets worldwide were the Netherlands ($708M), Malaysia ($513M) and the United States ($367M), together accounting for 65% of global imports. Germany, Italy, Indonesia and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

Among the main importing countries, Spain, with a CAGR of +13.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average crude coconut oil import price stood at $1,789 per ton in 2022, picking up by 11% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, crude coconut oil import price increased by +90.2% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 54% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure at $1,807 per ton in 2017; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Germany ($1,863 per ton) and Spain ($1,859 per ton), while Malaysia ($1,583 per ton) and the Netherlands ($1,772 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+6.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Crude Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2022, overseas shipments of crude coconut (copra) oil increased by 39% to 808K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. In general, exports, however, recorded a pronounced setback. The global exports peaked at 1.2M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, crude coconut oil exports soared to $2.3B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +125.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 64% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

Indonesia (349K tons) and the Philippines (322K tons) prevails in exports structure, together generating 83% of total exports. The following exporters - Papua New Guinea (31K tons), the Netherlands (22K tons), Sri Lanka (16K tons) and Malaysia (14K tons) - together made up 10% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Sri Lanka (with a CAGR of +23.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Philippines ($1.5B) remains the largest crude coconut oil supplier worldwide, comprising 64% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Indonesia ($512M), with a 22% share of global exports. It was followed by Sri Lanka, with a 3% share.

In the Philippines, crude coconut oil exports increased at an average annual rate of +8.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Indonesia (-2.2% per year) and Sri Lanka (+22.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average crude coconut oil export price stood at $2,817 per ton in 2022, falling by -5% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate strong growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 54% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $2,966 per ton, and then shrank in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Philippines ($4,533 per ton), while Papua New Guinea ($1,312 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+14.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform