Sri Lanka: Rice Market 2022

Rice Market Size in Sri Lanka

After three years of growth, the Sri Lankan rice market decreased by -3.5% to $X in 2021. Overall, the total consumption indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.5% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, consumption increased by +105.2% against 2017 indices. Rice consumption peaked at $X in 2020, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

Rice Production in Sri Lanka

In value terms, rice production dropped to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a resilient expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 78% against the previous year. Rice production peaked at $X in 2020, and then declined in the following year.

In 2021, the average yield of rice in Sri Lanka fell slightly to X tons per ha, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2012 to 2021; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 27%. The rice yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2020, and then shrank slightly in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

The rice harvested area in Sri Lanka contracted to X ha in 2021, waning by -5.1% compared with the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the harvested area increased by 41%. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of X ha. From 2016 to 2021, the growth of the rice harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Rice Exports

Exports from Sri Lanka

In 2021, overseas shipments of rice decreased by -4.6% to X tons for the first time since 2016, thus ending a four-year rising trend. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a abrupt curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 42%. The exports peaked at X tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, rice exports reduced to $X in 2021. Overall, exports continue to indicate a slight shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 47%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at $X in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2021, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Canada (X tons), Australia (X tons) and the United Arab Emirates (X tons) were the main destinations of rice exports from Sri Lanka, with a combined 34% share of total exports. The UK, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Maldives, the United States, France, Switzerland, Qatar and Japan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 54%.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Japan (with a CAGR of +104.6%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Australia ($X), Canada ($X) and the UK ($X) appeared to be the largest markets for rice exported from Sri Lanka worldwide, with a combined 34% share of total exports. These countries were followed by the United Arab Emirates, Italy, Germany, the United States, France, Maldives, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Qatar and Japan, which together accounted for a further 52%.

In terms of the main countries of destination, Japan, with a CAGR of +90.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average rice export price stood at $X per ton in 2021, standing approx. at the previous year. Overall, export price indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2021: its price increased at an average annual rate of +9.1% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, rice export price increased by +118.8% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 an increase of 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2020, and then contracted in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably country of destination: the country with the highest price was Australia ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Japan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to the United Arab Emirates (+9.0%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Rice Imports

Imports into Sri Lanka

In 2021, after two years of decline, there was significant growth in overseas purchases of rice, when their volume increased by 797% to X tons. In general, imports recorded a strong increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 2,430%. As a result, imports attained the peak of X tons. From 2015 to 2021, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, rice imports surged to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports showed a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 1,532%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $X. From 2015 to 2021, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2021, India (X tons) constituted the largest rice supplier to Sri Lanka, with a 90% share of total imports. Moreover, rice imports from India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Pakistan (X tons), tenfold.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from India totaled +37.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Pakistan (-2.0% per year) and Myanmar (-37.2% per year).

In value terms, India ($X) constituted the largest supplier of rice to Sri Lanka, comprising 86% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Pakistan ($X), with a 13% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of value from India stood at +37.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Pakistan (-1.9% per year) and Myanmar (-35.1% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The average rice import price stood at $X per ton in 2021, declining by -17.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a perceptible downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 an increase of 24% against the previous year. The import price peaked at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably country of origin: the country with the highest price was Pakistan ($X per ton), while the price for Myanmar ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Bangladesh (+68.5%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

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