GCC: Gold Market 2024

Gold Market Size in GCC

In 2021, the GCC gold market decreased by -6% to $X, falling for the third consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, consumption showed a strong expansion. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X. From 2014 to 2021, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Gold Production in GCC

In value terms, gold production declined to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. The total production indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, production increased by +69.6% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 40%. The level of production peaked at $X in 2020, and then contracted in the following year.

Gold Exports

Exports in GCC

In 2021, overseas shipments of gold increased by 13% to X tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a deep setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when exports increased by 23%. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, gold exports surged to $X in 2021. In general, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 86% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2021 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports by Country

The shipments of the one major exporters of gold, namely the United Arab Emirates, represented more than two-thirds of total export.

The United Arab Emirates was also the fastest-growing in terms of the gold exports, with a CAGR of -9.2% from 2012 to 2021. The shares of the largest exporters remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($X) also remains the largest gold supplier in GCC.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of value in the United Arab Emirates was relatively modest.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in GCC stood at $X per kg in 2021, surging by 4.1% against the previous year. Overall, the export price posted resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the export price increased by 81% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the maximum in 2021 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

As there is only one major export destination, the average price level is determined by prices for the United Arab Emirates.

From 2012 to 2021, the rate of growth in terms of prices for the United Arab Emirates amounted to +10.7% per year.

Gold Imports

Imports in GCC

After three years of decline, purchases abroad of gold increased by 64% to X tons in 2021. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a deep slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 88%. As a result, imports reached the peak of X tons. From 2014 to 2021, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, gold imports skyrocketed to $X in 2021. Total imports indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 86% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $X. From 2014 to 2021, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

The United Arab Emirates prevails in imports structure, reaching X tons, which was approx. 86% of total imports in 2021. It was distantly followed by Kuwait (X tons), committing a 4.7% share of total imports. The following importers - Saudi Arabia (X tons), Oman (X tons), Qatar (X tons) and Bahrain (X tons) - together made up 9.1% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2021, average annual rates of growth with regard to gold imports into the United Arab Emirates stood at -9.1%. At the same time, Oman (+17.1%), Bahrain (+13.1%) and Kuwait (+9.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Oman emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in GCC, with a CAGR of +17.1% from 2012-2021. Qatar experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Saudi Arabia (-13.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Kuwait (+3.7 p.p.), Oman (+2.3 p.p.) and Bahrain (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2021, the share of Saudi Arabia (-1.9 p.p.) and the United Arab Emirates (-6.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported gold in GCC, comprising 69% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Saudi Arabia ($X), with a 19% share of total imports. It was followed by Kuwait, with a 5.2% share.

In the United Arab Emirates, gold imports increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012-2021. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Saudi Arabia (+5.6% per year) and Kuwait (+11.2% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the import price in GCC amounted to $X per kg, reducing by -18% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, recorded a resilient increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the import price increased by 51% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $X per kg in 2020, and then fell rapidly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Saudi Arabia ($X per kg), while the United Arab Emirates ($X per kg) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Saudi Arabia (+22.5%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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