Unmanufactured Tobacco Market

The global unmanufactured tobacco market is expected to see an increase in consumption and value from 2022 to 2030, with China dominating both consumption and production. In 2022, global consumption declined, but certain countries saw growth in consumption per capita. Import and export trends show fluctuations in volume and value, with different countries leading in various categories. Overall, the market is forecasted to show slight growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for unmanufactured tobacco worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 6.6M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $29.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Unmanufactured Tobacco

In 2022, global unmanufactured tobacco consumption declined to 5.8M tons, waning by -5.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption showed a pronounced slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 7.8% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 7.6M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global unmanufactured tobacco market revenue dropped to $21.6B in 2022, which is down by -6.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption saw a noticeable decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 8.1% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at $29.6B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

China (2.2M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of unmanufactured tobacco consumption, accounting for 38% of total volume. Moreover, unmanufactured tobacco consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (508K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Indonesia (350K tons), with a 6% share.

In China, unmanufactured tobacco consumption contracted by an average annual rate of -4.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (-1.4% per year) and Indonesia (-0.3% per year).

In value terms, China ($5.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Indonesia ($2.1B). It was followed by India.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China amounted to -5.5%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Indonesia (+2.9% per year) and India (-1.6% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of unmanufactured tobacco per capita consumption was registered in the United Arab Emirates (12 kg per person), followed by Poland (3.6 kg per person), China (1.5 kg per person) and Germany (1.5 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of unmanufactured tobacco was estimated at less than 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the unmanufactured tobacco per capita consumption in the United Arab Emirates amounted to +18.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Poland (+2.5% per year) and China (-4.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Unmanufactured Tobacco

In 2022, the amount of tobacco (unmanufactured) produced worldwide shrank to 6M tons, reducing by -2.9% compared with 2021 figures. Over the period under review, production showed a noticeable decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 6%. Global production peaked at 7.7M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a pronounced decline of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco production dropped slightly to $21.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production saw a perceptible reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 9.4%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $33.1B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (2.3M tons) remains the largest unmanufactured tobacco producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 37% of total volume. Moreover, unmanufactured tobacco production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (765K tons), threefold. Brazil (719K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 12% share.

In China, unmanufactured tobacco production declined by an average annual rate of -4.0% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (-0.7% per year) and Brazil (-1.2% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average unmanufactured tobacco yield shrank to 1.8 tons per ha, dropping by -2.1% against the year before. Overall, the yield showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 4.3%. Over the period under review, the average unmanufactured tobacco yield reached the peak level at 1.9 tons per ha in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2022, approx. 3.4M ha of tobacco (unmanufactured) were harvested worldwide; leveling off at 2021. Over the period under review, the harvested area showed a pronounced decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 2%. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of 4.3M ha. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the global unmanufactured tobacco harvested area remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Unmanufactured Tobacco

Global unmanufactured tobacco imports was estimated at 2.3M tons in 2022, increasing by 10% on the previous year. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 2.5M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco imports expanded rapidly to $10.9B in 2022. Overall, imports, however, saw a mild downturn. Global imports peaked at $12.6B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

Belgium (187K tons), Germany (171K tons), China (161K tons), Indonesia (141K tons), Poland (141K tons), the United Arab Emirates (127K tons), the United States (126K tons), Turkey (90K tons), the Netherlands (86K tons), Russia (83K tons), Vietnam (67K tons) and the Dominican Republic (59K tons) represented roughly 62% of total imports in 2022. France (59K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +16.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest unmanufactured tobacco importing markets worldwide were China ($1.4B), Germany ($869M) and Belgium ($863M), together accounting for 28% of global imports. Indonesia, Poland, the United States, the Dominican Republic, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Russia, the Netherlands, Vietnam and France lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 39%.

The United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +17.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped was the main imported product with an import of around 1.6M tons, which amounted to 70% of total imports. It was distantly followed by tobacco refuse (355K tons) and tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) (351K tons), together constituting a 30% share of total imports.

Tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports. tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) (-2.6%) and tobacco refuse (-2.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped (+6.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) and tobacco refuse saw its share reduced by -2.7% and -3.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped ($8.6B) constitutes the largest type of tobacco (unmanufactured) imported worldwide, comprising 79% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) ($2B), with an 18% share of global imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped imports stood at -1.3%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) (-1.8% per year) and tobacco refuse (-4.5% per year).

Import Prices By Type

The average unmanufactured tobacco import price stood at $4,690 per ton in 2022, reducing by -2.9% against the previous year. Overall, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 an increase of 6.7%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $5,546 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) ($5,642 per ton), while the price for tobacco refuse ($777 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) (+0.8%), while the other products experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Import Prices By Country

The average unmanufactured tobacco import price stood at $4,690 per ton in 2022, dropping by -2.9% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 an increase of 6.7%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $5,546 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Dominican Republic ($8,833 per ton), while France ($2,406 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Dominican Republic (+5.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Unmanufactured Tobacco

In 2022, approx. 2.5M tons of tobacco (unmanufactured) were exported worldwide; picking up by 17% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 2.7M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco exports soared to $11.1B in 2022. In general, exports, however, saw a mild slump. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $12.7B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Brazil (553K tons), distantly followed by India (260K tons), China (219K tons), Zimbabwe (190K tons) and Belgium (173K tons) represented the major exporters of tobacco (unmanufactured), together making up 55% of total exports. The following exporters - the United States (105K tons), Malawi (95K tons), Argentina (72K tons), Italy (70K tons), Turkey (58K tons), Tanzania (57K tons), Germany (55K tons) and Indonesia (54K tons) - together made up 22% of total exports.

Exports from Brazil decreased at an average annual rate of -1.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Belgium (+6.0%), Indonesia (+4.4%) and Zimbabwe (+3.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +6.0% from 2012-2022. India, China, Germany and Italy experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Argentina (-2.3%), Turkey (-2.5%), Tanzania (-2.7%), the United States (-4.4%) and Malawi (-7.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Belgium, Zimbabwe and India increased by +3.3, +2.5 and +1.5 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Brazil ($2.3B) remains the largest unmanufactured tobacco supplier worldwide, comprising 21% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Zimbabwe ($926M), with an 8.4% share of global exports. It was followed by the United States, with a 7.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Brazil totaled -3.3%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Zimbabwe (+1.6% per year) and the United States (-2.7% per year).

Exports By Type

Tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped was the main type of tobacco (unmanufactured) in the world, with the volume of exports finishing at 1.8M tons, which was near 69% of total exports in 2022. Tobacco refuse (432K tons) took a 17% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) (13%).

Tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports. tobacco refuse (-1.1%) and tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) (-3.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped (+4.9 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) (-4.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped ($8.9B) remains the largest type of tobacco (unmanufactured) supplied worldwide, comprising 80% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) ($1.9B), with a 17% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped exports was relatively modest. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) (-2.1% per year) and tobacco refuse (-3.0% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average unmanufactured tobacco export price amounted to $4,376 per ton, stabilizing at the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the average export price increased by 7.4%. The global export price peaked at $5,016 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) ($5,599 per ton), while the average price for exports of tobacco refuse ($580 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) (+1.3%), while the other products experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Export Prices By Country

The average unmanufactured tobacco export price stood at $4,376 per ton in 2022, leveling off at the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 an increase of 7.4%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $5,016 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($8,240 per ton), while China ($2,561 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malawi (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform