Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp Market

The global semi-chemical wood pulp market is expected to continue growing over the next eight-year period, driven by increasing demand worldwide. Consumption is forecasted to increase by 1.2% annually, reaching 13M tons by 2030. Market value is projected to grow by 3.2% annually, reaching $10.1B by 2030. The United States, China, and India were the top consuming countries in 2022, while Canada, Finland, and Sweden were among the top producers. Imports and exports also showed notable trends, with China and Canada leading in imports and exports respectively. Overall, the market is poised for gradual growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for semi-chemical wood pulp worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 13M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp

In 2022, consumption of semi-chemical wood pulp increased by 1.8% to 12M tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. Overall, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 12M tons. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global semi-chemical wood pulp market revenue was estimated at $7.8B in 2022, increasing by 3.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $7.9B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (3.2M tons), China (3M tons) and India (695K tons), together accounting for 58% of global consumption. Canada, Russia, Egypt, Indonesia, South Korea, Norway, Sweden and Finland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Norway (with a CAGR of +29.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest semi-chemical wood pulp markets worldwide were China ($2B), the United States ($1.8B) and India ($487M), together comprising 54% of the global market. Egypt, Russia, Indonesia, South Korea, Sweden, Finland, Norway and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 20%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Norway, with a CAGR of +34.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of semi-chemical wood pulp per capita consumption in 2022 were Norway (45 kg per person), Finland (37 kg per person) and Sweden (23 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Norway (with a CAGR of +27.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp

For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in production of semi-chemical wood pulp, which increased by 0.2% to 11M tons in 2022. In general, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 0.9%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 12M tons in 2014; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, semi-chemical wood pulp production reduced slightly to $5.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 28%. Global production peaked at $7.5B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (3.2M tons), Canada (2.5M tons) and China (1.7M tons), together comprising 65% of global production. Russia, Finland, Norway, Indonesia, New Zealand, Sweden, Estonia and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Norway (with a CAGR of +26.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in supplies from abroad of semi-chemical wood pulp, when their volume decreased by -1.6% to 4M tons. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when imports increased by 31% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 4.2M tons. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, semi-chemical wood pulp imports skyrocketed to $2.5B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 24%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

China represented the key importer of semi-chemical wood pulp in the world, with the volume of imports accounting for 1.3M tons, which was near 34% of total imports in 2022. India (526K tons) held a 13% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Egypt (11%), South Korea (6.3%), Sweden (6.2%), the Netherlands (5.6%) and Indonesia (4.7%).

China experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of semi-chemical wood pulp. At the same time, Sweden (+30.2%), the Netherlands (+18.7%), India (+15.6%), Indonesia (+14.2%) and Egypt (+6.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Sweden emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +30.2% from 2012-2022. By contrast, South Korea (-2.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of India, Sweden, the Netherlands, Egypt and Indonesia increased by +9.2, +5.6, +4.3, +3.6 and +3.2 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, China ($800M) constitutes the largest market for imported semi-chemical wood pulp worldwide, comprising 32% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($395M), with a 16% share of global imports. It was followed by Egypt, with a 10% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+18.7% per year) and Egypt (+6.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average semi-chemical wood pulp import price stood at $628 per ton in 2022, growing by 21% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.0%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the average import price increased by 32%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in India ($750 per ton) and South Korea ($693 per ton), while Sweden ($515 per ton) and the Netherlands ($560 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Semi-Chemical Wood Pulp

Global semi-chemical wood pulp exports fell to 3.5M tons in 2022, which is down by -6.7% on the previous year. In general, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 5.2% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 3.8M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, semi-chemical wood pulp exports rose notably to $2.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 27% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $2.2B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Canada prevails in exports structure, accounting for 1.9M tons, which was near 53% of total exports in 2022. Finland (325K tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Sweden (242K tons), New Zealand (197K tons) and Estonia (187K tons). All these countries together took near 27% share of total exports. The following exporters - Brazil (138K tons), the Netherlands (113K tons), Russia (90K tons), Norway (84K tons), Germany (73K tons) and the United States (71K tons) - together made up 16% of total exports.

Exports from Canada decreased at an average annual rate of -1.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Norway (+21.9%), Brazil (+18.3%), the Netherlands (+17.4%), Germany (+10.8%), Estonia (+4.9%) and Finland (+4.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Norway emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +21.9% from 2012-2022. Sweden and New Zealand experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Russia (-5.7%) and the United States (-16.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Estonia, Finland, Brazil, the Netherlands and Norway increased by +5.3, +3.5, +3.2, +2.5 and +2.1 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Canada ($1.2B) remains the largest semi-chemical wood pulp supplier worldwide, comprising 55% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Sweden ($155M), with a 7.3% share of global exports. It was followed by Finland, with a 7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Canada was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Sweden (+3.3% per year) and Finland (+2.3% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average semi-chemical wood pulp export price amounted to $602 per ton, with an increase of 22% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.0%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($706 per ton), while Finland ($460 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden (+2.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform