Roasted Coffee Market

The global roasted coffee market is expected to see continued growth from 2022 to 2030, with consumption projected to reach 20M tons and market value to hit $174.5B by the end of the period. China leads in both consumption and production volumes, while the United States shows significant growth in market size. Roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) dominates both imports and exports, with Switzerland, Italy, and Germany emerging as top exporters. Overall, the market is characterized by steady growth in both volume and value terms, with fluctuations recorded in certain years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for roasted coffee worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 20M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $174.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Roasted Coffee

Global roasted coffee consumption was estimated at 16M tons in 2022, flattening at the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a notable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -5.2% against 2020 indices. Global consumption peaked at 17M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global roasted coffee market size amounted to $118.9B in 2022, with an increase of 3.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $126.3B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (3.4M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of roasted coffee consumption, comprising approx. 21% of total volume. Moreover, roasted coffee consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (1.7M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (1.3M tons), with an 8.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +6.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+9.5% per year) and India (+6.1% per year).

In value terms, the largest roasted coffee markets worldwide were China ($25.9B), the United States ($13.3B) and Japan ($9.4B), with a combined 41% share of the global market.

The United States, with a CAGR of +8.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of roasted coffee per capita consumption in 2022 were Canada (8 kg per person), Italy (7.2 kg per person) and Japan (5.2 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +8.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Consumption By Type

Roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) (16M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 98% of total volume. It was followed by roasted decaffeinated coffee (329K tons), with a 2.1% share of total consumption.

For roasted coffee (not decaffeinated), consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the period from 2012-2022.

In value terms, roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) ($116.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by roasted decaffeinated coffee ($2.7B).

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) market stood at +3.9%.

Production

World Production of Roasted Coffee

In 2022, production of roasted coffee decreased by less than 0.1% to 16M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after five years of growth. In general, the total production indicated a perceptible increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -5.4% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 10%. Global production peaked at 17M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, roasted coffee production rose rapidly to $117.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 15%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $125.6B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (3.4M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of roasted coffee production, comprising approx. 21% of total volume. Moreover, roasted coffee production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (1.6M tons), twofold. India (1.3M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with an 8.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +6.0%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+9.1% per year) and India (+6.1% per year).

Production By Type

Roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) (16M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, comprising approx. 98% of total volume. It was followed by roasted decaffeinated coffee (324K tons), with a 2% share of total production.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the volume of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) production totaled +4.2%.

In value terms, roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) ($114.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by roasted decaffeinated coffee ($2.7B).

For roasted coffee (not decaffeinated), production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012-2022.

Imports

World Imports of Roasted Coffee

In 2022, approx. 1.4M tons of roasted coffee were imported worldwide; surging by 2.2% compared with the previous year. In general, total imports indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +7.6% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 14%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, roasted coffee imports amounted to $14.6B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +76.2% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, France (165K tons), the United States (112K tons), Germany (112K tons), Canada (78K tons), the Netherlands (76K tons), Poland (74K tons), the UK (54K tons), Austria (46K tons), Belgium (40K tons), Slovakia (40K tons), Romania (39K tons) and the Czech Republic (38K tons) was the major importer of roasted coffee in the world, comprising 62% of total import. Russia (31K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +10.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($2.2B), the United States ($1.9B) and Germany ($957M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 35% share of global imports. Canada, the Netherlands, the UK, Poland, Austria, Belgium, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +9.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) dominates imports structure, amounting to 1.3M tons, which was near 96% of total imports in 2022. Roasted decaffeinated coffee (56K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +5.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, roasted decaffeinated coffee (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. While the share of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) (+1.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of roasted decaffeinated coffee (-1.7 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) ($13.9B) constitutes the largest type of roasted coffee imported worldwide, comprising 95% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by roasted decaffeinated coffee ($740M), with a 5.1% share of global imports.

For roasted coffee (not decaffeinated), imports expanded at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

The average roasted coffee import price stood at $10,425 per ton in 2022, surging by 6.3% against the previous year. Overall, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was roasted decaffeinated coffee ($13,266 per ton), while the price for roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) stood at $10,307 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by roasted decaffeinated coffee (+1.7%).

Import Prices By Country

The average roasted coffee import price stood at $10,425 per ton in 2022, surging by 6.3% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($16,554 per ton), while Slovakia ($6,099 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+5.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Roasted Coffee

In 2022, the amount of roasted coffee exported worldwide reached 1.4M tons, growing by 1.5% against the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 9.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, roasted coffee exports rose markedly to $14.5B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +65.3% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 15%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Italy (292K tons) and Germany (255K tons) represented the major exporters of roasted coffee in 2022, reaching approx. 21% and 19% of total exports, respectively. Switzerland (107K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by the Netherlands (105K tons), the United States (88K tons) and Poland (68K tons). All these countries together held near 27% share of total exports. The following exporters - France (56K tons), Canada (53K tons), Belgium (42K tons), Slovakia (26K tons), Sweden (25K tons), Spain (24K tons) and the Czech Republic (21K tons) - together made up 18% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by France (with a CAGR of +11.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Switzerland ($3.4B), Italy ($2.3B) and Germany ($2B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 53% of global exports. France, the Netherlands, the United States, Canada, Poland, Belgium, Spain, Sweden, the Czech Republic and Slovakia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

France, with a CAGR of +11.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) prevails in exports structure, reaching 1.3M tons, which was approx. 96% of total exports in 2022. Roasted decaffeinated coffee (52K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +4.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, roasted decaffeinated coffee (+1.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) ($13.8B) remains the largest type of roasted coffee supplied worldwide, comprising 95% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by roasted decaffeinated coffee ($739M), with a 5.1% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) exports stood at +5.3%.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average roasted coffee export price amounted to $10,606 per ton, increasing by 4.2% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 7.7%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was roasted decaffeinated coffee ($14,336 per ton), while the average price for exports of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) stood at $10,461 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by roasted decaffeinated coffee (+1.0%).

Export Prices By Country

The average roasted coffee export price stood at $10,606 per ton in 2022, surging by 4.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 7.7%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($31,774 per ton), while Slovakia ($6,192 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic (+1.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform