Powdered, Evaporated And Condensed Milk Market

The article discusses the increasing demand for powdered, evaporated, and condensed milk globally, with a projected growth in consumption and production over the next eight years. It highlights market performance, forecasting a CAGR of +2.3% in volume and +2.1% in value from 2022 to 2030. The article provides insights into consumption and production trends, key consuming and producing countries, as well as import and export dynamics, showcasing the market's overall growth potential and opportunities.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for powdered, evaporated and condensed milk worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 18M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $63.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Powdered, Evaporated And Condensed Milk

In 2022, consumption of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk increased by 3.5% to 15M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

The size of the market for powdered, evaporated and condensed milk worldwide expanded rapidly to $53.9B in 2022, picking up by 7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $54B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (1.4M tons), China (1.2M tons) and the Netherlands (839K tons), with a combined 23% share of global consumption. Germany, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Malaysia, Algeria, Indonesia, Italy, India and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Italy (with a CAGR of +13.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($4.4B), the United States ($3.1B) and Brazil ($2.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 19% of the global market. Mexico, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Indonesia, Algeria, Peru, India, Malaysia and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.

Among the main consuming countries, Italy, with a CAGR of +14.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (48 kg per person), followed by Peru (17 kg per person), Malaysia (13 kg per person) and Germany (9.9 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk was estimated at less than 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the powdered, evaporated and condensed milk per capita consumption in the Netherlands totaled +9.1%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Peru (+1.7% per year) and Malaysia (+2.0% per year).

Consumption By Type

The products with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were powdered milk (9M tons) and evaporated and condensed milk (6.2M tons).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for evaporated and condensed milk (with a CAGR of +2.0%).

In value terms, powdered milk ($33.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by evaporated and condensed milk ($10.7B).

For powdered milk, market increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012-2022.

Production

World Production of Powdered, Evaporated And Condensed Milk

In 2022, global powdered, evaporated and condensed milk production was estimated at 15M tons, remaining stable against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 8.4% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 15M tons in 2020; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, powdered, evaporated and condensed milk production reached $37B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 14%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $46B. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (2.3M tons), New Zealand (1.9M tons) and Germany (1.3M tons), with a combined 37% share of global production. The Netherlands, Brazil, Peru, France, Belarus, Mexico, India, Belgium, the UK and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +6.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Type

The products with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were powdered milk (8.8M tons) and evaporated and condensed milk (6M tons).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for evaporated and condensed milk (with a CAGR of +1.9%).

In value terms, powdered milk ($27.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by evaporated and condensed milk ($9.9B).

For powdered milk, production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022.

Imports

World Imports of Powdered, Evaporated And Condensed Milk

In 2022, overseas purchases of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk were finally on the rise to reach 8.2M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 7.8%. Global imports peaked at 8.2M tons in 2019; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, powdered, evaporated and condensed milk imports skyrocketed to $27.1B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $28.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (1.1M tons), distantly followed by the United Arab Emirates (487K tons) and the Netherlands (424K tons) represented the key importers of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk, together generating 24% of total imports. Algeria (364K tons), Indonesia (333K tons), Belgium (293K tons), Mexico (286K tons), Saudi Arabia (283K tons), Germany (229K tons), the Philippines (210K tons), Malaysia (172K tons), Oman (169K tons) and Greece (161K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to powdered, evaporated and condensed milk imports into China stood at +6.4%. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (+6.9%), Indonesia (+4.8%), the Philippines (+3.3%), Germany (+2.9%), Belgium (+2.8%), Malaysia (+2.4%), Oman (+2.2%), Algeria (+2.2%), the Netherlands (+1.5%) and Greece (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +6.9% from 2012-2022. Mexico and Saudi Arabia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China and the United Arab Emirates increased by +4.8 and +2.3 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($4.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported powdered, evaporated and condensed milk worldwide, comprising 17% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Indonesia ($1.3B), with a 4.8% share of global imports. It was followed by the United Arab Emirates, with a 4.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +8.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+6.1% per year) and the United Arab Emirates (+5.5% per year).

Imports By Type

Powdered milk represented the main imported product with an import of about 6.1M tons, which resulted at 75% of total imports. It was distantly followed by evaporated and condensed milk (2.1M tons), making up a 25% share of total imports.

Powdered milk was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, evaporated and condensed milk (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, powdered milk ($23.7B) constitutes the largest type of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk imported worldwide, comprising 87% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by evaporated and condensed milk ($3.4B), with a 13% share of global imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of powdered milk imports totaled +2.6%.

Import Prices By Type

The average import price for powdered, evaporated and condensed milk stood at $3,297 per ton in 2022, picking up by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the average import price increased by 15%. Global import price peaked at $3,752 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was powdered milk ($3,853 per ton), while the price for evaporated and condensed milk totaled $1,646 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by powdered milk (+0.8%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for powdered, evaporated and condensed milk amounted to $3,297 per ton, increasing by 13% against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 15%. Global import price peaked at $3,752 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($4,236 per ton), while Greece ($1,683 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+2.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Powdered, Evaporated And Condensed Milk

In 2022, overseas shipments of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk decreased by -2.9% to 7.8M tons, falling for the second year in a row after four years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 7.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 8.1M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, powdered, evaporated and condensed milk exports stood at $26.8B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +69.9% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, New Zealand (1.7M tons), distantly followed by the United States (897K tons), Germany (691K tons), the Netherlands (612K tons), France (407K tons) and Belgium (400K tons) were the major exporters of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk, together achieving 61% of total exports. The United Arab Emirates (341K tons), Australia (266K tons), Ireland (221K tons), Belarus (200K tons), Saudi Arabia (190K tons), Argentina (181K tons) and Uruguay (157K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +13.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, New Zealand ($6.8B) remains the largest powdered, evaporated and condensed milk supplier worldwide, comprising 25% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($3.3B), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 7.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in New Zealand amounted to +2.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+8.7% per year) and Germany (+2.5% per year).

Exports By Type

Powdered milk was the largest exported product with an export of about 5.9M tons, which finished at 76% of total exports. It was distantly followed by evaporated and condensed milk (1.8M tons), making up a 24% share of total exports.

Powdered milk was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, evaporated and condensed milk (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, powdered milk ($23.7B) remains the largest type of powdered, evaporated and condensed milk supplied worldwide, comprising 88% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by evaporated and condensed milk ($3.1B), with a 12% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of powdered milk exports amounted to +3.3%.

Export Prices By Type

The average export price for powdered, evaporated and condensed milk stood at $3,454 per ton in 2022, rising by 17% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, powdered, evaporated and condensed milk export price increased by +59.1% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the average export price increased by 22%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $3,549 per ton; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was powdered milk ($3,987 per ton), while the average price for exports of evaporated and condensed milk amounted to $1,719 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by powdered milk (+1.8%).

Export Prices By Country

The average export price for powdered, evaporated and condensed milk stood at $3,454 per ton in 2022, jumping by 17% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, powdered, evaporated and condensed milk export price increased by +59.1% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 22%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $3,549 per ton; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($4,321 per ton), while Saudi Arabia ($1,214 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform