Non-Decaffeinated Roasted Coffee Market

The global roasted coffee market is projected to show steady growth in volume and value over the next eight years. The market performance is expected to expand with a CAGR of +3.2% in volume and +5.0% in value from 2022 to 2030, reaching 20M tons and $171.6B by the end of 2030. The largest consumers and producers of non-decaffeinated roasted coffee are China, the United States, and India. Import and export prices have shown steady growth, with prominent countries like France, the United States, and Switzerland leading the way in both exports and imports.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 20M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $171.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Roasted Coffee (Not Decaffeinated)

In 2022, approx. 16M tons of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated) were consumed worldwide; standing approx. at the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a moderate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -5.5% against 2020 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 16M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global non-decaffeinated roasted coffee market revenue reached $116.1B in 2022, surging by 3.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $123.7B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of non-decaffeinated roasted coffee consumption was China (3.4M tons), accounting for 22% of total volume. Moreover, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (1.6M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (1.3M tons), with an 8.3% share.

In China, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+10.0% per year) and India (+6.2% per year).

In value terms, the largest non-decaffeinated roasted coffee markets worldwide were China ($25.8B), the United States ($12.9B) and Japan ($9.4B), with a combined 41% share of the global market.

The United States, with a CAGR of +8.8%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of non-decaffeinated roasted coffee per capita consumption in 2022 were Canada (7.9 kg per person), Italy (6.5 kg per person) and Japan (5.2 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +9.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Roasted Coffee (Not Decaffeinated)

In 2022, global non-decaffeinated roasted coffee production reached 16M tons, remaining relatively unchanged against the year before. Overall, the total production indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -5.7% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 11%. Global production peaked at 16M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee production expanded rapidly to $114.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $123.1B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (3.4M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of non-decaffeinated roasted coffee production, comprising approx. 22% of total volume. Moreover, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (1.6M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (1.3M tons), with an 8.3% share.

In China, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee production expanded at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+9.4% per year) and India (+6.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Roasted Coffee (Not Decaffeinated)

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded growth in supplies from abroad of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated), which increased by 2.5% to 1.3M tons in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +8.1% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee imports rose rapidly to $13.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +78.9% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the twelve major importers of roasted coffee (not decaffeinated), namely France, Germany, the United States, Canada, the Netherlands, Poland, the UK, Austria, Slovakia, Romania, the Czech Republic and Belgium, represented more than half of total import. Russia (31K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +9.9%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($2.1B), the United States ($1.7B) and Germany ($927M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 34% of global imports.

The United States, with a CAGR of +10.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average non-decaffeinated roasted coffee import price stood at $10,307 per ton in 2022, rising by 6.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($16,558 per ton), while Slovakia ($6,076 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+4.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Roasted Coffee (Not Decaffeinated)

Global non-decaffeinated roasted coffee exports reached 1.3M tons in 2022, increasing by 1.6% on 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 9.5%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, non-decaffeinated roasted coffee exports expanded significantly to $13.8B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +67.6% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 16%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Italy (286K tons) and Germany (248K tons) represented roughly 40% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by the Netherlands (101K tons), Switzerland (100K tons), the United States (81K tons) and Poland (68K tons), together constituting a 27% share of total exports. France (52K tons), Canada (49K tons), Belgium (40K tons), Slovakia (26K tons), Sweden (25K tons), Spain (22K tons) and the Czech Republic (20K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +11.4%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest non-decaffeinated roasted coffee supplying countries worldwide were Switzerland ($3.2B), Italy ($2.2B) and Germany ($2B), together accounting for 53% of global exports. France, the Netherlands, the United States, Canada, Poland, Belgium, Spain, Sweden, the Czech Republic and Slovakia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, France, with a CAGR of +11.7%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average non-decaffeinated roasted coffee export price amounted to $10,461 per ton, picking up by 4.5% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 7.7%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($31,622 per ton), while Slovakia ($6,164 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic (+2.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform