Mobile Phone Market

The global mobile phone market is projected to see a slight increase in performance over the next eight years, with both volume and value expected to grow. China remains a key player in both consumption and production, while the United States and Hong Kong SAR are significant importers and exporters. The market has seen fluctuations in consumption, production, imports, and exports over the past decade, with various countries experiencing different rates of growth.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for mobile phone worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.4B units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $511.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Mobile Phones

In 2022, approx. 2.1B units of mobile phones were consumed worldwide; flattening at the previous year. In general, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 8.3%. Global consumption peaked at 2.4B units in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global mobile phone market revenue rose modestly to $378B in 2022, surging by 4.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (534M units) remains the largest mobile phone consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 26% of total volume. Moreover, mobile phone consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (146M units), fourfold. The United States (141M units) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +4.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (-0.1% per year) and the United States (-2.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($67.1B), the United States ($47.2B) and India ($26.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 37% of the global market.

India, with a CAGR of +12.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of mobile phone per capita consumption in 2022 were the United Arab Emirates (11 units per person), Hong Kong SAR (8.2 units per person) and Germany (0.5 units per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +7.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Mobile Phones

Global mobile phone production reduced slightly to 2.2B units in 2022, remaining relatively unchanged against 2021 figures. Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume at 2.5B units in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, mobile phone production shrank to $315.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $340B. From 2019 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (1.4B units) constituted the country with the largest volume of mobile phone production, accounting for 62% of total volume. Moreover, mobile phone production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (184M units), sevenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Vietnam (142M units), with a 6.4% share.

In China, mobile phone production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+14.5% per year) and Vietnam (+3.3% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Mobile Phones

In 2022, the amount of mobile phones imported worldwide fell significantly to 1.3B units, shrinking by -22.9% against the year before. Over the period under review, imports saw a pronounced reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 2B units in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, mobile phone imports reduced to $308.2B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 18%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $330.7B, and then fell in the following year.

Imports By Country

The United States (189M units) and Hong Kong SAR (188M units) represented roughly 30% of total imports in 2022. It was followed by the United Arab Emirates (112M units), creating an 8.9% share of total imports. The following importers - Germany (44M units), Russia (41M units), Japan (34M units), Bangladesh (29M units), Austria (28M units), the UK (27M units), Iraq (26M units), the Netherlands (25M units), Italy (25M units) and France (23M units) - together made up 24% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Austria (with a CAGR of +10.9%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest mobile phone importing markets worldwide were the United States ($66.2B), Hong Kong SAR ($36.8B) and the United Arab Emirates ($19.5B), with a combined 40% share of global imports. Japan, Germany, the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Iraq, Russia, France and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 25%.

Among the main importing countries, Austria, with a CAGR of +14.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average mobile phone import price amounted to $245 per unit, jumping by 21% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +7.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, mobile phone import price increased by +98.9% against 2012 indices. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($503 per unit), while Bangladesh ($27 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hong Kong SAR (+11.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Mobile Phones

In 2022, global mobile phone exports reduced rapidly to 1.4B units, which is down by -22.3% against 2021 figures. In general, exports continue to indicate a noticeable reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 30% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 2.3B units in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, mobile phone exports contracted to $271.9B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 17%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $295B in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (852M units) was the largest exporter of mobile phones, mixing up 62% of total exports. Vietnam (146M units) took an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Hong Kong SAR (9.1%). The United States (48M units), India (41M units) and the Netherlands (22M units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to mobile phone exports from China stood at -1.9%. At the same time, the Netherlands (+9.5%) and Vietnam (+8.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +9.5% from 2012-2022. The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, India (-2.1%) and Hong Kong SAR (-6.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Vietnam (+7.2 p.p.) and China (+6.3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Hong Kong SAR saw its share reduced by -3.7% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($143.5B) remains the largest mobile phone supplier worldwide, comprising 53% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Vietnam ($35.2B), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by Hong Kong SAR, with a 10% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China stood at +5.8%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Vietnam (+13.3% per year) and Hong Kong SAR (+9.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average mobile phone export price stood at $198 per unit in 2022, growing by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +7.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, mobile phone export price increased by +45.6% against 2018 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the average export price increased by 37%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($245 per unit), while the Netherlands ($146 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hong Kong SAR (+16.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform