Melamine Market

The global melamine market is anticipated to see continued growth over the next eight years, with consumption expected to increase at a CAGR of +2.1%. Market performance shows a positive trend pattern, with both consumption volume and value forecasted to rise. In 2022, global consumption reached 1.3M tons, with a significant increase from the previous year. The market size also saw substantial growth, soaring to $2.4B. Key consuming countries include the Netherlands, Poland, and India, with notable growth rates in consumption and market value. Melamine production, primarily led by China, expanded in 2022, while imports and exports showed fluctuations in volume and price. Overall, the melamine market is poised for growth in the near future, with various countries playing key roles in production, consumption, and trade.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for melamine worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $2.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Melamine

Global melamine consumption skyrocketed to 1.3M tons in 2022, increasing by 16% against 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global melamine market size soared to $2.4B in 2022, with an increase of 30% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +71.4% against 2020 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the Netherlands (153K tons), Poland (89K tons) and India (69K tons), together accounting for 25% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +48.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($361M), Poland ($182M) and Germany ($129M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 29% share of the global market.

Among the main consuming countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +55.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of melamine per capita consumption in 2022 were the Netherlands (8.7 kg per person), Austria (7.7 kg per person) and Belgium (2.9 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +47.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Melamine

Global melamine production expanded to 1.2M tons in 2022, growing by 2.5% against the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 22% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 1.2M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, melamine production declined to $1.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +45.5% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 33% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $1.8B, and then fell in the following year.

Production By Country

China (558K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of melamine production, comprising approx. 48% of total volume. Moreover, melamine production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the Netherlands (128K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Qatar (84K tons), with a 7.2% share.

In China, melamine production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the Netherlands (+45.5% per year) and Qatar (+0.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Melamine

In 2022, overseas purchases of melamine increased by 2.8% to 878K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 19%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, melamine imports soared to $2B in 2022. Overall, imports continue to indicate strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 133% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the twelve major importers of melamine, namely India, Turkey, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Brazil, Spain, the United States, the UK, Thailand, Poland and Vietnam, represented more than half of total import. Indonesia (27K tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +26.6%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest melamine importing markets worldwide were Turkey ($163M), India ($134M) and the United States ($133M), with a combined 22% share of global imports. Italy, Germany, Belgium, Spain, Brazil, Poland, the UK, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 45%.

Among the main importing countries, Vietnam, with a CAGR of +27.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average melamine import price stood at $2,267 per ton in 2022, increasing by 21% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, melamine import price increased by +137.2% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 96% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($3,441 per ton), while Vietnam ($1,377 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+9.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Melamine

After two years of growth, shipments abroad of melamine decreased by -13.6% to 784K tons in 2022. In general, total exports indicated tangible growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +21.5% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 22%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 907K tons, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, melamine exports fell significantly to $1.4B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a resilient increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 156% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $1.6B, and then shrank significantly in the following year.

Exports By Country

China dominates exports structure, reaching 534K tons, which was approx. 68% of total exports in 2022. Qatar (55K tons) held a 7% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Germany (6.7%). Trinidad and Tobago (20K tons), India (18K tons), Austria (18K tons) and Japan (17K tons) held a little share of total exports.

Exports from China increased at an average annual rate of +15.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, India (+136.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, India emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +136.8% from 2012-2022. Qatar experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Japan (-2.4%), Germany (-5.0%), Austria (-5.4%) and Trinidad and Tobago (-8.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+44 p.p.) and India (+2.3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Japan, Austria, Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago and Germany saw its share reduced by -2%, -3.7%, -4.5%, -6.5% and -10.1% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, China ($749M) remains the largest melamine supplier worldwide, comprising 55% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($172M), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by Qatar, with an 8.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +17.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+3.7% per year) and Qatar (+4.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average melamine export price amounted to $1,744 per ton, dropping by -3.1% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, melamine export price increased by +102.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 109%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $1,800 per ton, and then declined in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($3,255 per ton), while China ($1,404 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+9.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform