Lysine Market

The article highlights the increasing demand for lysine and its derivatives globally, with a forecasted CAGR of +3.3% in volume and +4.8% in value from 2022 to 2030. Key consuming countries include China, US, and India. Production, imports, and exports are also analyzed, with China leading in exports. The market shows fluctuations in volume, value, and prices over the years, with notable growth in South Korea and India. Overall, the global lysine market is expected to see steady growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for lysine and its esters, and salts thereof worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $29.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lysine And Its Esters, And Salts Thereof

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was decline in consumption of lysine and its esters, and salts thereof, when its volume decreased by -3.4% to 5.8M tons. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +21.8% against 2018 indices. Global consumption peaked at 6M tons in 2021, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

The global lysine market size contracted modestly to $20B in 2022, dropping by -3.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $20.7B in 2021, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (1.1M tons), the United States (985K tons) and India (490K tons), together accounting for 44% of global consumption. Japan, Germany, Indonesia, Brazil, the UK, France, Spain, Turkey and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by South Korea (with a CAGR of +8.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($7.4B), India ($4.8B) and China ($1.3B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 68% of the global market.

Among the main consuming countries, India, with a CAGR of +6.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of lysine per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (3.4 kg per person), the United States (2.9 kg per person) and Japan (2.7 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for South Korea (with a CAGR of +7.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Lysine And Its Esters, And Salts Thereof

After three years of growth, production of lysine and its esters, and salts thereof decreased by -4.9% to 5.8M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +22.5% against 2018 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 20%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 6.1M tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, lysine production dropped to $17.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $19.3B, and then fell in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (2M tons), the United States (1.1M tons) and India (409K tons), with a combined 60% share of global production. Indonesia, Japan, Brazil, Germany, South Korea, the UK, France and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for France (with a CAGR of +12.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Lysine And Its Esters, And Salts Thereof

For the seventh year in a row, the global market recorded growth in purchases abroad of lysine and its esters, and salts thereof, which increased by 6.1% to 1.6M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when imports increased by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, lysine imports soared to $2.8B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a slight increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +83.2% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (196K tons), followed by Spain (125K tons), India (81K tons) and Germany (76K tons) were the main importers of lysine and its esters, and salts thereof, together comprising 30% of total imports. Vietnam (60K tons), France (59K tons), Russia (59K tons), Poland (54K tons), Belgium (53K tons), Italy (47K tons), Canada (46K tons), Mexico (44K tons) and Thailand (44K tons) took a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +13.8%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lysine importing markets worldwide were the Netherlands ($332M), Spain ($170M) and Germany ($159M), together comprising 24% of global imports. India, Poland, Russia, France, Italy, Canada, Vietnam, Belgium, Mexico and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

India, with a CAGR of +8.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average lysine import price amounted to $1,765 per ton, rising by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, recorded a mild slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average import price increased by 33% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $2,056 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,107 per ton), while Vietnam ($1,365 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+1.0%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Lysine And Its Esters, And Salts Thereof

In 2022, overseas shipments of lysine and its esters, and salts thereof decreased by -0.3% to 1.6M tons for the first time since 2015, thus ending a six-year rising trend. In general, total exports indicated temperate growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +71.2% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 1.6M tons in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, lysine exports skyrocketed to $2.4B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a slight increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +86.1% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 46% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

China prevails in exports structure, reaching 927K tons, which was near 58% of total exports in 2022. The United States (135K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with an 8.4% share, followed by the Netherlands (7.7%), Indonesia (7.3%) and South Korea (6.6%). The following exporters - Brazil (39K tons) and France (39K tons) - each resulted at a 4.9% share of total exports.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the lysine and its esters, and salts thereof exports, with a CAGR of +18.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, South Korea (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. The Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the United States (-5.0%), Indonesia (-5.5%), Brazil (-11.0%) and France (-49.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+41 p.p.) and France (+2.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of South Korea (-2.4 p.p.), the Netherlands (-3.7 p.p.), Brazil (-9.8 p.p.), Indonesia (-12.6 p.p.) and the United States (-13.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, China ($1.3B) remains the largest lysine supplier worldwide, comprising 56% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Netherlands ($220M), with a 9.2% share of global exports. It was followed by the United States, with a 6.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +14.5%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (-1.3% per year) and the United States (-10.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average lysine export price amounted to $1,505 per ton, growing by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a pronounced setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 32%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $2,090 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was France ($1,894 per ton), while the United States ($1,185 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+34.9%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform