Lithium Oxide Market

The article discusses the anticipated downward consumption trend in the lithium oxide market over the next eight years, with a projected decrease in market volume to 377K tons by 2030. Despite the decrease in volume, the market value is expected to increase to $12B by 2030. Insights into consumption, production, imports, and exports of lithium oxides in countries like South Korea, Japan, and China are provided, highlighting growth rates and market sizes over the years.

Market Forecast

The lithium oxide market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -3.4% for the eight-year period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to depress the market volume to 377K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $12B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lithium Oxide

In 2022, consumption of lithium oxides increased by 158% to 496K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a prominent increase. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global lithium oxide market value soared to $9.2B in 2022, increasing by 68% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption enjoyed a buoyant increase. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of lithium oxide consumption was South Korea (284K tons), comprising approx. 57% of total volume. Moreover, lithium oxide consumption in South Korea exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Japan (97K tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Australia (42K tons), with an 8.5% share.

In South Korea, lithium oxide consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +73.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Japan (+36.4% per year) and Australia (+12.4% per year).

In value terms, the largest lithium oxide markets worldwide were Australia ($3.8B), South Korea ($3.5B) and Japan ($1.1B), together comprising 93% of the global market.

Among the main consuming countries, South Korea, with a CAGR of +77.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of lithium oxide per capita consumption was registered in Australia (1,599 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Japan (777 kg per 1000 persons), China (15 kg per 1000 persons) and South Korea (5.5 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of lithium oxide was estimated at 0.8 kg per 1000 persons.

In Australia, lithium oxide per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +10.8% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Japan (+36.7% per year) and China (-13.5% per year).

Production

World Production of Lithium Oxide

In 2022, production of lithium oxides increased by 181% to 542K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a resilient expansion. As a result, production reached the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, lithium oxide production contracted modestly to $1.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 66% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $2.1B. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of lithium oxide production was China (380K tons), comprising approx. 70% of total volume. Moreover, lithium oxide production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Chile (59K tons), sixfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Australia (41K tons), with a 7.6% share.

In China, lithium oxide production increased at an average annual rate of +15.5% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Chile (+26.9% per year) and Australia (+12.4% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Lithium Oxide

Global lithium oxide imports soared to 434K tons in 2022, rising by 280% compared with the year before. In general, imports posted significant growth. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, lithium oxide imports soared to $5.5B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate significant growth. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

South Korea represented the major importer of lithium oxides in the world, with the volume of imports accounting for 287K tons, which was near 66% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Japan (97K tons), committing a 22% share of total imports. The following importers - France (6.9K tons) and India (6.8K tons) - each recorded a 3.2% share of total imports.

South Korea was also the fastest-growing in terms of the lithium oxides imports, with a CAGR of +73.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Japan (+36.4%), France (+28.9%) and India (+15.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. While the share of South Korea (+60 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of India (-7.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Korea ($3.7B) constitutes the largest market for imported lithium oxides worldwide, comprising 67% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($1.2B), with a 21% share of global imports. It was followed by India, with a 1.2% share.

In South Korea, lithium oxide imports increased at an average annual rate of +79.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Japan (+41.3% per year) and India (+20.7% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average lithium oxide import price stood at $12,575 per ton in 2022, surging by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the average import price increased by 37% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $13,514 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($12,798 per ton), while France ($3,591 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+4.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Lithium Oxide

In 2022, global exports of lithium oxides skyrocketed to 480K tons, rising by 320% on 2021. In general, exports showed a significant expansion. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, lithium oxide exports surged to $5.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports posted a significant increase. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

China was the key exporting country with an export of around 363K tons, which recorded 76% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Chile (59K tons), generating a 12% share of total exports. The following exporters - the United States (18K tons), the Netherlands (12K tons) and Russia (10K tons) - together made up 8.5% of total exports.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the lithium oxides exports, with a CAGR of +59.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, the Netherlands (+44.8%), Chile (+27.2%), Russia (+19.4%) and the United States (+10.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. While the share of China (+59 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Russia (-6.3 p.p.), Chile (-13.3 p.p.) and the United States (-28.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($3.9B) remains the largest lithium oxide supplier worldwide, comprising 76% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Chile ($489M), with a 9.5% share of global exports. It was followed by the United States, with a 6.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +66.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Chile (+32.9% per year) and the United States (+20.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average lithium oxide export price stood at $10,771 per ton in 2022, surging by 9.7% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, lithium oxide export price increased by +18.5% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 an increase of 53% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $12,296 per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($18,087 per ton), while the Netherlands ($7,579 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+8.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform