Lignite Market

The global lignite market is projected to see a slight increase in consumption over the next eight years, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.9% in volume and +5.2% in value terms. Top consuming countries include Germany, China, and Turkey, while Indonesia and Russia lead in exports. China dominates the imports market. Prices are expected to see steady growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for lignite worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 972M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $275.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lignite

In 2022, consumption of lignites decreased by -0.8% to 836M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the consumption volume increased by 5.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume at 896M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global lignite market revenue fell to $184.4B in 2022, dropping by -12.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption showed a pronounced curtailment. Global consumption peaked at $245.1B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Germany (162M tons), China (130M tons) and Turkey (89M tons), together accounting for 46% of global consumption. Mongolia, the United States, Poland, India, Serbia, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Greece and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 44%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Mongolia (with a CAGR of +9.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Mongolia ($63B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($17.7B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Mongolia totaled +12.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (-1.4% per year) and the United States (-4.3% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of lignite per capita consumption was registered in Mongolia (21 ton per person), followed by Serbia (6 ton per person), Bulgaria (4 ton per person) and the Czech Republic (3.3 ton per person), while the world average per capita consumption of lignite was estimated at 0.1 ton per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the lignite per capita consumption in Mongolia totaled +7.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Serbia (+1.2% per year) and Bulgaria (-1.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Lignite

In 2022, the amount of lignites produced worldwide contracted slightly to 811M tons, standing approx. at the previous year's figure. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 3.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 876M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, lignite production shrank to $288.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 22%. Global production peaked at $306.1B in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Germany (163M tons), Indonesia (110M tons) and Turkey (89M tons), with a combined 45% share of global production. Mongolia, the United States, Poland, India, Serbia, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Greece and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 45%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Mongolia (with a CAGR of +9.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Lignite

In 2022, approx. 141M tons of lignites were imported worldwide; with an increase of 14% against the year before. In general, imports showed resilient growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 128%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, lignite imports skyrocketed to $13.1B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports enjoyed a strong increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 121%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

China prevails in imports structure, reaching 130M tons, which was near 92% of total imports in 2022. Pakistan (2.2M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +9.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Pakistan (+186.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Pakistan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +186.6% from 2012-2022. China (+3.8 p.p.) and Pakistan (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($12.3B) constitutes the largest market for imported lignites worldwide, comprising 94% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Pakistan ($194M), with a 1.5% share of global imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +13.7%.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average lignite import price amounted to $93 per ton, surging by 23% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a temperate expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average import price increased by 88% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($95 per ton), while Pakistan totaled $87 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+4.2%).

Exports

World Exports of Lignite

In 2022, overseas shipments of lignites increased by 24% to 116M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Over the period under review, exports recorded a prominent expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 81%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, lignite exports soared to $8.8B in 2022. Overall, exports saw a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 121%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Indonesia prevails in exports structure, finishing at 106M tons, which was near 92% of total exports in 2022. Russia (4M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to lignite exports from Indonesia stood at +11.2%. At the same time, Russia (+40.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Russia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +40.4% from 2012-2022. While the share of Indonesia (+3.2 p.p.) and Russia (+3.1 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Indonesia ($7.9B) remains the largest lignite supplier worldwide, comprising 90% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Russia ($420M), with a 4.8% share of global exports.

In Indonesia, lignite exports increased at an average annual rate of +15.4% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices By Country

The average lignite export price stood at $76 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 29% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a measured expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, lignite export price increased by +108.9% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the average export price increased by 32% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Russia ($104 per ton), while Indonesia amounted to $74 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+3.8%).

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform