Lead Ore Market

The global lead ore market is expected to witness an increase in consumption and value from 2022 to 2030, with Kazakhstan leading in both consumption and production. The market is forecasted to reach 12M tons in volume and $21B in value by 2030. Commodities like lead ore are vital for various industries, driving demand worldwide. Despite fluctuations in consumption and production over the years, Kazakhstan remains a key player in the market, consuming and producing the largest volume of lead ore.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for lead ore worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 12M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $21B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lead Ores And Concentrates

Global lead ore consumption expanded slightly to 11M tons in 2022, increasing by 1.9% against the previous year. In general, consumption, however, showed a mild shrinkage. Global consumption peaked at 13M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global lead ore market size reduced to $15.5B in 2022, falling by -2.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $15.9B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

Kazakhstan (6.4M tons) remains the largest lead ore consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 58% of total volume. Moreover, lead ore consumption in Kazakhstan exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (1M tons), sixfold. Mexico (547K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Kazakhstan amounted to -2.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: China (-5.7% per year) and Mexico (+19.3% per year).

In value terms, Kazakhstan ($7.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by China ($1.4B). It was followed by Mexico.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Kazakhstan stood at +1.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: China (-7.0% per year) and Mexico (+17.7% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of lead ore per capita consumption was registered in Kazakhstan (335 kg per person), followed by Australia (18 kg per person), Peru (9.2 kg per person) and South Korea (7.8 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of lead ore was estimated at 1.4 kg per person.

In Kazakhstan, lead ore per capita consumption plunged by an average annual rate of -3.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Australia (+5.6% per year) and Peru (+9.4% per year).

Production

World Production of Lead Ores And Concentrates

In 2022, approx. 12M tons of lead ores were produced worldwide; surging by 4.9% compared with the previous year. In general, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 6.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 13M tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, lead ore production fell to $16.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +59.7% against 2014 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $18B in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Production By Country

Kazakhstan (6.3M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of lead ore production, accounting for 54% of total volume. Moreover, lead ore production in Kazakhstan exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Mexico (729K tons), ninefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Australia (721K tons), with a 6.1% share.

In Kazakhstan, lead ore production decreased by an average annual rate of -2.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mexico (+7.1% per year) and Australia (+1.3% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Lead Ores And Concentrates

In 2022, supplies from abroad of lead ores decreased by -17.3% to 2.2M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after four years of growth. Over the period under review, imports showed a perceptible curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 3.4M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, lead ore imports reduced dramatically to $4.4B in 2022. In general, imports showed a abrupt slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 10% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $8.1B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

China represented the key importing country with an import of around 1M tons, which finished at 45% of total imports. South Korea (405K tons) took an 18% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Japan (5.5%) and Kazakhstan (5%). The following importers - the Netherlands (97K tons), Germany (80K tons), Italy (76K tons), Belgium (70K tons), Bulgaria (66K tons), Spain (50K tons) and Canada (36K tons) - together made up 21% of total imports.

Imports into China decreased at an average annual rate of -5.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Spain (+26.7%), Italy (+23.2%), the Netherlands (+12.6%) and Kazakhstan (+9.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +26.7% from 2012-2022. Japan, South Korea and Bulgaria experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Belgium (-6.7%), Canada (-8.6%) and Germany (-10.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of South Korea (+5.5 p.p.), Kazakhstan (+3.6 p.p.), the Netherlands (+3.4 p.p.), Italy (+3.1 p.p.), Spain (+2.1 p.p.) and Japan (+2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Germany (-3.5 p.p.) and China (-10.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest lead ore importing markets worldwide were China ($1.5B), South Korea ($843M) and Belgium ($364M), with a combined 60% share of global imports. Japan, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, Germany, Bulgaria and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

Italy, with a CAGR of +26.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average lead ore import price stood at $1,962 per ton in 2022, reducing by -9.9% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a perceptible reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 35%. Global import price peaked at $2,522 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($5,617 per ton), while Spain ($513 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Lead Ores And Concentrates

In 2022, shipments abroad of lead ores decreased by -4.2% to 2.9M tons, falling for the third consecutive year after three years of growth. Overall, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 14%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 3.8M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, lead ore exports reduced to $5.3B in 2022. In general, exports continue to indicate a pronounced descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 9.1% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $7.6B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Peru (362K tons), Russia (333K tons), Australia (291K tons), the United States (279K tons), Mexico (201K tons), Spain (143K tons), Bolivia (138K tons), Democratic People's Republic of Korea (138K tons), Turkey (136K tons), Nigeria (106K tons), Tajikistan (81K tons) and Portugal (65K tons) was the main exporter of lead ores in the world, generating 78% of total export. Sweden (64K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Portugal (with a CAGR of +92.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lead ore supplying countries worldwide were Peru ($948M), Mexico ($746M) and the United States ($742M), with a combined 46% share of global exports. Russia, Australia, Turkey, Bolivia, Spain, Tajikistan, Sweden, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Nigeria and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

Portugal, with a CAGR of +86.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average lead ore export price stood at $1,827 per ton in 2022, with a decrease of -11.3% against the previous year. Overall, the export price showed a noticeable slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 35% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $2,409 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($3,707 per ton), while Nigeria ($289 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tajikistan (+2.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform