Lactose Market

The article discusses the expected growth trends in the global market for lactose and lactose syrup from 2022 to 2030, with forecasted increases in both volume and value. Analysis of consumption, production, import, and export trends, as well as key countries involved in the market, is presented. Key insights include the highest consuming and producing countries, import and export values, and average prices over the period under review.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for lactose and lactose syrup worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.2M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $4.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lactose And Lactose Syrup

In 2022, global consumption of lactose and lactose syrup expanded significantly to 1.8M tons, with an increase of 5.1% on the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 8.3% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 1.8M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

The global lactose market value rose rapidly to $3B in 2022, surging by 8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were India (165K tons), China (145K tons) and Germany (116K tons), with a combined 24% share of global consumption. Russia, Japan, the United States, New Zealand, the Netherlands, France, Turkey, Ireland, Indonesia and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +14.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lactose markets worldwide were India ($278M), Russia ($270M) and Germany ($197M), with a combined 25% share of the global market. China, Japan, France, New Zealand, Ireland, the United States, the Netherlands, Indonesia, Turkey and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +12.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of lactose per capita consumption in 2022 were New Zealand (14 kg per person), Ireland (11 kg per person) and the Netherlands (3.7 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +14.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Lactose And Lactose Syrup

In 2022, global lactose production stood at 1.7M tons, growing by 2% against the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 1.7M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, lactose production rose notably to $2.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the production volume increased by 15% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (536K tons), Germany (316K tons) and India (125K tons), together accounting for 58% of global production. Russia, the Netherlands, France, Turkey, the UK, Italy, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Canada and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +15.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Lactose And Lactose Syrup

In 2022, the amount of lactose and lactose syrup imported worldwide expanded remarkably to 1.2M tons, picking up by 5.6% on 2021. In general, total imports indicated measured growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +58.4% against 2012 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 15%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, lactose imports rose markedly to $1.9B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a temperate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +84.2% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 31% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the twelve major importers of lactose and lactose syrup, namely China, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Japan, Ireland, Indonesia, Germany, India, France, Mexico, South Africa and the Philippines, represented more than half of total import. Thailand (26K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Indonesia (with a CAGR of +8.3%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lactose importing markets worldwide were China ($204M), the Netherlands ($162M) and New Zealand ($158M), together accounting for 27% of global imports. Japan, Ireland, India, Germany, Indonesia, France, Mexico, Thailand, the Philippines and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

Germany, with a CAGR of +6.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average lactose import price amounted to $1,608 per ton, picking up by 4.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a noticeable shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average import price increased by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $2,026 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was India ($2,064 per ton), while South Africa ($1,066 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (-0.3%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Lactose And Lactose Syrup

For the eighth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in overseas shipments of lactose and lactose syrup, which increased by 0.9% to 1.1M tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, lactose exports expanded modestly to $1.7B in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +110.8% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 29%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The United States was the key exporter of lactose and lactose syrup in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 453K tons, which was approx. 42% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Germany (250K tons) and the Netherlands (121K tons), together creating a 35% share of total exports. France (47K tons), Italy (29K tons), New Zealand (28K tons), Poland (26K tons) and the UK (23K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +45.7%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($583M), Germany ($477M) and the Netherlands ($249M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 79% share of global exports. France, New Zealand, Italy, Poland and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 12%.

Among the main exporting countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +43.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average lactose export price stood at $1,559 per ton in 2022, growing by 2.2% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate a noticeable contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 21%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $1,931 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($2,057 per ton), while the UK ($791 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (-0.2%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform