Grapefruit Market

The global grapefruit market is projected to continue its upward consumption trend, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% from 2022 to 2030, increasing market volume to 13M tons. Consumption reached 10M tons in 2022, with China leading the market both in volume and value. Production also saw growth, reaching 10M tons in 2022. Import and export trends show fluctuations, with the Netherlands, South Africa, and China as key players. Price trends remained relatively stable, with noticeable differences amongst major exporting countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for grapefruits worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 13M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $12.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Grapefruits (Inc. Pomelos)

For the eighth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in consumption of grapefruits, which increased by 0.5% to 10M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

The global grapefruit market value reduced to $8.8B in 2022, declining by -3.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $9.1B in 2021, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (5.1M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of grapefruit consumption, accounting for 49% of total volume. Moreover, grapefruit consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Vietnam (1.1M tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (579K tons), with a 5.6% share.

In China, grapefruit consumption increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Vietnam (+10.1% per year) and India (+6.1% per year).

In value terms, China ($4.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Vietnam ($926M). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the grapefruit market increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Vietnam (+10.8% per year) and the United States (-4.1% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of grapefruit per capita consumption in 2022 were Vietnam (11 kg per person), Syrian Arab Republic (8.4 kg per person) and Sudan (6.2 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Syrian Arab Republic (with a CAGR of +17.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Grapefruits (Inc. Pomelos)

For the eighth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in production of grapefruits, which increased by 0.6% to 10M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 6.7% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by tangible growth of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, grapefruit production declined slightly to $8.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 19%. Global production peaked at $9.1B in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

China (5.2M tons) remains the largest grapefruit producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 50% of total volume. Moreover, grapefruit production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Vietnam (1.1M tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (579K tons), with a 5.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +4.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Vietnam (+10.1% per year) and India (+6.0% per year).

Yield

The global average grapefruit yield reduced to 25 tons per ha in 2022, waning by -4.3% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, the yield saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the yield increased by 11% against the previous year. The global yield peaked at 26 tons per ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

The global grapefruit harvested area rose markedly to 417K ha in 2022, picking up by 5.1% against the year before. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 11%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to grapefruit production reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports

World Imports of Grapefruits (Inc. Pomelos)

Global grapefruit imports reduced to 958K tons in 2022, shrinking by -11.1% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, imports saw a mild contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 13%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 1.2M tons. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, grapefruit imports declined sharply to $954M in 2022. Overall, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 12% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $1.1B in 2021, and then plummeted in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (194K tons), distantly followed by China (107K tons), Russia (98K tons), France (52K tons) and Germany (48K tons) represented the major importers of grapefruits, together making up 52% of total imports. Japan (40K tons), Poland (39K tons), Canada (32K tons), Romania (27K tons), the UK (24K tons), Hong Kong SAR (22K tons), the United States (21K tons) and Italy (20K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +24.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest grapefruit importing markets worldwide were the Netherlands ($177M), China ($121M) and Russia ($75M), with a combined 39% share of global imports. Germany, France, Japan, Poland, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, the UK, Romania, the United States and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

The United States, with a CAGR of +34.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average grapefruit import price stood at $996 per ton in 2022, dropping by -6.3% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 13%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $1,063 per ton, and then fell in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,363 per ton), while Russia ($769 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+10.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Grapefruits (Inc. Pomelos)

In 2022, the amount of grapefruits exported worldwide fell to 939K tons, reducing by -10.9% compared with the previous year. Overall, exports saw a slight curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when exports increased by 16% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 1.2M tons. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, grapefruit exports contracted to $802M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when exports increased by 8.2% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $960M in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2022, South Africa (238K tons), distantly followed by China (138K tons), Turkey (133K tons), the Netherlands (116K tons), Spain (66K tons) and Israel (54K tons) were the key exporters of grapefruits, together generating 79% of total exports. Thailand (34K tons) and the United States (31K tons) held a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Thailand (with a CAGR of +9.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest grapefruit supplying countries worldwide were the Netherlands ($142M), South Africa ($127M) and China ($124M), together comprising 49% of global exports. Spain, Turkey, Israel, Thailand and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

Among the main exporting countries, Thailand, with a CAGR of +25.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average grapefruit export price amounted to $854 per ton, flattening at the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the average export price increased by 13%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1,259 per ton), while Turkey ($523 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand (+14.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform