Gearboxes and Speed Changers Market

The article provides a detailed analysis of the global market for gearboxes and speed changers, forecasting steady growth in demand over the next eight years. The market performance is expected to accelerate, with a projected CAGR of +2.8% in volume and +4.8% in value from 2022 to 2030. Consumption trends, market revenue, production volume, import and export data are thoroughly examined, highlighting key players such as China, the United States, Germany, and India. The article also discusses per capita consumption, production trends, import/export volumes, and average prices to offer a comprehensive overview of the gearboxes and speed changers market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for gearboxes and speed changers worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.8M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $105.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Gearboxes and Speed Changers for Machinery and Land or Sea Vehicles excluding Gears and Gearing

Global gearboxes and speed changers consumption dropped to 3.8M tons in 2022, flattening at the previous year's figure. Overall, consumption, however, saw a modest increase. Global consumption peaked at 4.3M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global gearboxes and speed changers market revenue totaled $72.4B in 2022, picking up by 3.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 5.5% against the previous year. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $74.4B. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (859K tons), the United States (540K tons) and Germany (430K tons), with a combined 48% share of global consumption. India, Italy, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Denmark, South Korea, Turkey and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Denmark (with a CAGR of +16.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest gearboxes and speed changers markets worldwide were the United States ($21.1B), China ($13.1B) and India ($7.8B), together comprising 58% of the global market. Germany, Italy, Japan, Denmark, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, Turkey and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 30%.

Denmark, with a CAGR of +14.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of gearboxes and speed changers per capita consumption was registered in Denmark (19 kg per person), followed by Germany (5.2 kg per person), Italy (4.3 kg per person) and the United States (1.6 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of gearboxes and speed changers was estimated at less than 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the gearboxes and speed changers per capita consumption in Denmark stood at +15.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+1.1% per year) and Italy (+1.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Gearboxes and Speed Changers for Machinery and Land or Sea Vehicles excluding Gears and Gearing

In 2022, approx. 4M tons of gearboxes and speed changers were produced worldwide; shrinking by -3.5% against 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 8%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 4.5M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, gearboxes and speed changers production totaled $68.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 9.3%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $73.8B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of gearboxes and speed changers production was China (1.3M tons), comprising approx. 31% of total volume. Moreover, gearboxes and speed changers production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Germany (512K tons), twofold. India (361K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9% share.

In China, gearboxes and speed changers production expanded at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Germany (+0.2% per year) and India (+3.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Gearboxes and Speed Changers for Machinery and Land or Sea Vehicles excluding Gears and Gearing

In 2022, supplies from abroad of gearboxes and speed changers increased by 4.3% to 1.4M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, gearboxes and speed changers imports amounted to $20B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 21%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (235K tons), distantly followed by Brazil (121K tons), Germany (94K tons), China (91K tons), Italy (65K tons) and Mexico (62K tons) represented the major importers of gearboxes and speed changers, together achieving 49% of total imports. Canada (49K tons), Japan (47K tons), Spain (42K tons), France (37K tons), Denmark (34K tons), Indonesia (29K tons) and South Korea (28K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Brazil (with a CAGR of +10.1%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($3.3B), China ($2B) and Germany ($1.2B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 33% of global imports. Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, South Korea, Spain, Denmark and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Canada, with a CAGR of +6.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average gearboxes and speed changers import price stood at $14,685 per ton in 2022, approximately mirroring the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a slight decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the average import price increased by 3.2%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $17,347 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($24,136 per ton), while Indonesia ($8,277 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+4.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Gearboxes and Speed Changers for Machinery and Land or Sea Vehicles excluding Gears and Gearing

In 2022, approx. 1.6M tons of gearboxes and speed changers were exported worldwide; dropping by -3.3% against 2021 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 30% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 1.6M tons, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, gearboxes and speed changers exports fell modestly to $22.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 23%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $22.3B, leveling off in the following year.

Exports By Country

China represented the major exporting country with an export of around 504K tons, which recorded 32% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Germany (176K tons), Italy (170K tons), Japan (133K tons) and Taiwan (Chinese) (103K tons), together creating a 37% share of total exports. Denmark (59K tons), Spain (57K tons), Belgium (42K tons), India (38K tons), South Korea (37K tons) and the United States (24K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to gearboxes and speed changers exports from China stood at +21.8%. At the same time, India (+24.9%), Denmark (+10.7%), Taiwan (Chinese) (+9.3%), Spain (+2.5%) and Italy (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, India emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +24.9% from 2012-2022. Japan, South Korea and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Belgium (-3.0%) and the United States (-9.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+26 p.p.), Taiwan (Chinese) (+2.6 p.p.), India (+2 p.p.) and Denmark (+1.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Belgium, Japan, Italy, the United States and Germany saw its share reduced by -2.5%, -3.1%, -3.1%, -4.3% and -6.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($3.5B), Germany ($3.4B) and Italy ($2.2B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 42% share of global exports. The United States, Japan, Taiwan (Chinese), India, Spain, Belgium, Denmark and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 38%.

India, with a CAGR of +25.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average gearboxes and speed changers export price stood at $14,052 per ton in 2022, picking up by 2.6% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a noticeable contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the average export price increased by 4.9%. The global export price peaked at $17,525 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($84,405 per ton), while China ($6,999 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+13.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform