Dried Or Smoked Fish Market

Driven by increasing demand worldwide, the global market for dried or smoked fish is expected to see growth in consumption and value over the next eight years. Consumption increased in 2022 after several years of decline, with China, Japan, and the United States being the top consuming countries. Production and imports remained relatively stable, while exports saw minor fluctuations. Norway and China saw significant growth in exports, while Belarus saw notable growth in exports. Prices for imports and exports varied by country, with Lithuania having the highest export price and Thailand having the lowest. Overall, the market for dried or smoked fish is projected to show steady growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for dried or smoked fish worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 6.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $49.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Dried Or Smoked Fish

In 2022, consumption of dried or smoked fish increased by less than 0.1% to 5.6M tons, rising for the sixth consecutive year after three years of decline. In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 5.6M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

The global dried or smoked fish market revenue shrank slightly to $37.3B in 2022, with a decrease of -1.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 5%. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $37.9B, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of dried or smoked fish consumption was China (1M tons), accounting for 18% of total volume. Moreover, dried or smoked fish consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Japan (442K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (400K tons), with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +4.5%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Japan (-2.5% per year) and the United States (-3.3% per year).

In value terms, the largest dried or smoked fish markets worldwide were China ($6.4B), Japan ($6B) and the United States ($2.1B), together accounting for 39% of the global market. Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, Portugal, Norway, Chile, Ethiopia, Pakistan and India lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.

Norway, with a CAGR of +27.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of dried or smoked fish per capita consumption was registered in Norway (23 kg per person), followed by Chile (9.9 kg per person), Portugal (9.1 kg per person) and Japan (3.5 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of dried or smoked fish was estimated at 0.7 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the dried or smoked fish per capita consumption in Norway amounted to +29.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Chile (-6.9% per year) and Portugal (+0.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Dried Or Smoked Fish

In 2022, production of dried or smoked fish increased by 0.1% to 5.5M tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 5.1%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 5.6M tons. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, dried or smoked fish production dropped to $36.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 6.7%. Global production peaked at $38.6B in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of dried or smoked fish production was China (989K tons), comprising approx. 18% of total volume. Moreover, dried or smoked fish production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Japan (430K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (409K tons), with a 7.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +3.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (-2.5% per year) and India (+3.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Dried Or Smoked Fish

In 2022, the amount of dried or smoked fish imported worldwide stood at 846K tons, therefore, remained relatively stable against the year before. Overall, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 7.8% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 875K tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, dried or smoked fish imports rose sharply to $7.1B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (83K tons), Germany (70K tons), Portugal (64K tons), the Netherlands (52K tons), Italy (46K tons), the United States (45K tons), Nigeria (36K tons), France (34K tons), Sweden (33K tons), Spain (29K tons), Malaysia (24K tons) and Brazil (22K tons) was the key importer of dried or smoked fish in the world, mixing up 64% of total import. The Dominican Republic (22K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +36.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($914M), Italy ($610M) and Portugal ($549M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 29% of global imports. The United States, the Netherlands, Sweden, France, China, Spain, Brazil, Nigeria, the Dominican Republic and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

China, with a CAGR of +32.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average dried or smoked fish import price stood at $8,374 per ton in 2022, surging by 8.3% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.9%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($13,317 per ton), while Malaysia ($2,178 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia (+7.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Dried Or Smoked Fish

In 2022, the amount of dried or smoked fish exported worldwide reached 810K tons, almost unchanged from the previous year's figure. In general, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 12%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 855K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, dried or smoked fish exports totaled $6.8B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 13%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Norway (144K tons), followed by Vietnam (88K tons), Poland (74K tons), China (62K tons) and the Netherlands (57K tons) were the key exporters of dried or smoked fish, together generating 52% of total exports. The following exporters - Denmark (31K tons), Germany (30K tons), Sweden (29K tons), Canada (28K tons), Belarus (22K tons), Thailand (21K tons), Lithuania (19K tons) and Tanzania (16K tons) - together made up 24% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Belarus (with a CAGR of +23.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Poland ($1.1B), Norway ($968M) and the Netherlands ($497M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 38% of global exports. Germany, China, Denmark, Vietnam, Lithuania, Sweden, Canada, Belarus, Tanzania and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

Tanzania, with a CAGR of +19.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average dried or smoked fish export price amounted to $8,376 per ton, flattening at the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the average export price increased by 9.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Lithuania ($15,778 per ton), while Thailand ($2,484 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tanzania (+17.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform