Corrugated Paper Box Market

The global market for corrugated paper boxes is expected to see continued growth, with a forecasted CAGR of +3.2% in volume and +4.0% in value from 2022 to 2030. China remains the largest consumer and producer of corrugated paper boxes, followed by the United States and India. The market saw fluctuations in consumption and production over the past decade, with notable increases in volume and value. Import and export trends also showed growth, with the Netherlands, Germany, and the United States being key players in the international trade of corrugated paper boxes.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cartons, boxes and cases of corrugated paper or paperboard worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 192M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $399.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cartons, Boxes And Cases Of Corrugated Paper Or Paperboard

In 2022, global corrugated paper box consumption dropped modestly to 150M tons, declining by -3.7% on 2021. In general, the total consumption indicated a noticeable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +60.9% against 2012 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 155M tons, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

The global corrugated paper box market value expanded modestly to $293.1B in 2022, picking up by 4.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +65.6% against 2016 indices. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (36M tons) remains the largest corrugated paper box consuming country worldwide, accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, corrugated paper box consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (15M tons), twofold. India (12M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.7% share.

In China, corrugated paper box consumption increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+9.7% per year) and India (+7.2% per year).

In value terms, China ($105.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($30.6B). It was followed by India.

In China, the corrugated paper box market increased at an average annual rate of +9.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+11.4% per year) and India (+8.3% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of corrugated paper box per capita consumption in 2022 were Italy (95 kg per person), Spain (80 kg per person) and Germany (58 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +10.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cartons, Boxes And Cases Of Corrugated Paper Or Paperboard

In 2022, the amount of cartons, boxes and cases of corrugated paper or paperboard produced worldwide dropped to 150M tons, shrinking by -3.8% compared with the year before. In general, the total production indicated tangible growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +60.5% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 13%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 156M tons, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, corrugated paper box production totaled $307.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +75.7% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 20%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Production By Country

China (36M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of corrugated paper box production, accounting for 24% of total volume. Moreover, corrugated paper box production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (16M tons), twofold. India (12M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.7% share.

In China, corrugated paper box production expanded at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+9.2% per year) and India (+7.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Cartons, Boxes And Cases Of Corrugated Paper Or Paperboard

Global corrugated paper box imports was estimated at 6.2M tons in 2022, approximately equating the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 11%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, corrugated paper box imports totaled $10.6B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a resilient expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +61.6% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (1.3M tons), distantly followed by Germany (414K tons), Mexico (382K tons), France (357K tons) and Canada (290K tons) represented the major importers of cartons, boxes and cases of corrugated paper or paperboard, together comprising 44% of total imports. Belgium (277K tons), the United States (274K tons), Switzerland (140K tons), Poland (126K tons), the UK (119K tons), Sweden (118K tons), Slovakia (113K tons) and Hungary (113K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

The Netherlands was also the fastest-growing in terms of the cartons, boxes and cases of corrugated paper or paperboard imports, with a CAGR of +13.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Poland (+10.3%), Sweden (+8.8%), the United States (+6.3%), Canada (+5.4%), Belgium (+5.2%), Hungary (+5.0%), Germany (+4.8%), Slovakia (+2.7%), France (+2.7%), the UK (+2.7%) and Switzerland (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Mexico (-2.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the Netherlands increased by +12 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($1.1B), Mexico ($794M) and Germany ($743M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 25% of global imports. The United States, France, Canada, Belgium, the UK, Switzerland, Hungary, Sweden, Slovakia and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Sweden, with a CAGR of +9.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average corrugated paper box import price amounted to $1,708 per ton, picking up by 6.1% against the previous year. Overall, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 14%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($2,918 per ton), while the Netherlands ($845 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Slovakia (+4.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cartons, Boxes And Cases Of Corrugated Paper Or Paperboard

In 2022, shipments abroad of cartons, boxes and cases of corrugated paper or paperboard decreased by -3.9% to 6.8M tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 14%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 7.1M tons, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, corrugated paper box exports totaled $11.8B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +57.9% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (849K tons), Germany (843K tons), the United States (717K tons), China (506K tons), Poland (392K tons), Italy (334K tons), Austria (250K tons), Mexico (246K tons), Spain (239K tons), Belgium (224K tons), Turkey (219K tons) and Guatemala (165K tons) was the main exporter of cartons, boxes and cases of corrugated paper or paperboard in the world, comprising 73% of total export. France (147K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +20.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest corrugated paper box supplying countries worldwide were China ($1.9B), the United States ($1.5B) and Germany ($1.4B), with a combined 40% share of global exports. Poland, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Turkey, France, Mexico and Guatemala lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Among the main exporting countries, Turkey, with a CAGR of +13.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average corrugated paper box export price amounted to $1,747 per ton, increasing by 6.6% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.7%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 9.1%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($3,760 per ton), while the Netherlands ($508 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+7.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform