Cocoa Paste Market

The cocoa paste market is projected to experience steady growth in both volume and value terms from 2022 to 2030, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% and +5.4% respectively. Global consumption, production, imports, and exports are all on the rise, with key players such as China, the United States, and India leading the way in both consumption and production. However, countries like Turkey are seeing significant growth in imports. Prices have shown some variability, with Switzerland commanding the highest export prices. Overall, the global cocoa paste market is poised for continued expansion in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cocoa paste worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 12M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $45.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cocoa Paste

Global cocoa paste consumption reached 8.9M tons in 2022, with an increase of 2.3% compared with 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 7.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 9.1M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global cocoa paste market size reached $29.8B in 2022, approximately equating the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the market value increased by 8.9%. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $30B. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (1.3M tons), the United States (921K tons) and India (493K tons), with a combined 30% share of global consumption. Japan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia, Germany, the UK and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Pakistan (with a CAGR of +7.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cocoa paste markets worldwide were the United States ($3.5B), China ($2.4B) and Japan ($1.7B), together accounting for 26% of the global market. Nigeria, India, Pakistan, Brazil, Russia, the UK, Germany, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

Among the main consuming countries, Pakistan, with a CAGR of +6.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of cocoa paste per capita consumption in 2022 were the United States (2.7 kg per person), the UK (2.7 kg per person) and Japan (2.6 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Pakistan (with a CAGR of +5.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cocoa Paste

Global cocoa paste production amounted to 8.9M tons in 2022, with an increase of 1.9% against the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 8.5%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 9M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, cocoa paste production amounted to $28.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by 7.9%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $29.1B. From 2021 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (1.2M tons), the United States (780K tons) and India (487K tons), together accounting for 28% of global production. Cote d'Ivoire, Japan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Brazil, Ghana, Germany and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Pakistan (with a CAGR of +7.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Cocoa Paste

Global cocoa paste imports rose modestly to 1.1M tons in 2022, surging by 3.1% compared with 2021 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 9.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, cocoa paste imports dropped slightly to $3.8B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 12%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $3.8B in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of cocoa paste imports in 2022 were the United States (155K tons), the Netherlands (145K tons), Germany (98K tons), Spain (91K tons), Belgium (89K tons), France (75K tons), Poland (52K tons), Italy (40K tons), Turkey (27K tons), Malaysia (25K tons), Singapore (24K tons) and China (23K tons), together resulting at 74% of total import. Canada (22K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +13.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($490M), the Netherlands ($454M) and Germany ($329M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 34% of global imports. Belgium, France, Spain, Poland, Italy, China, Turkey, Canada, Singapore and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 41%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Turkey, with a CAGR of +14.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average cocoa paste import price amounted to $3,313 per ton, dropping by -3.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a mild downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 8.1%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $3,728 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($4,301 per ton), while Spain ($2,425 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+0.9%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Cocoa Paste

In 2022, global exports of cocoa paste reached 1.2M tons, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, cocoa paste exports dropped modestly to $3.9B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 15%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $4B, and then dropped in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Cote d'Ivoire (364K tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (206K tons), Ghana (151K tons), Germany (92K tons) and Indonesia (61K tons) represented the main exporters of cocoa paste, together creating 73% of total exports. France (46K tons), Cameroon (43K tons), Malaysia (38K tons), Ecuador (22K tons), Belgium (21K tons) and Switzerland (20K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Cameroon (with a CAGR of +8.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Cote d'Ivoire ($1B), the Netherlands ($704M) and Ghana ($469M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 57% share of global exports. Germany, Indonesia, France, Malaysia, Cameroon, Switzerland, Belgium and Ecuador lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Ecuador, with a CAGR of +7.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average cocoa paste export price amounted to $3,246 per ton, waning by -3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a mild decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 an increase of 7.2%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $3,692 per ton. From 2017 to 2022, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($4,758 per ton), while Cameroon ($2,591 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (-0.1%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform