Biodiesel Market

Driven by increasing demand for biodiesel worldwide, the global market is expected to see a steady growth in consumption over the next eight years. Market performance is forecasted to expand with a CAGR of +4.8% for market volume and +5.9% for market value from 2022 to 2030. In 2022, biodiesel consumption reduced to 40M tons, down by -3% compared to the previous year, but overall consumption showed an increase from 2012 to 2022. The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Indonesia, Brazil, and the United States. Biodiesel production also saw a rise from 2012 to 2022, with the most notable growth in Malaysia. Global imports and exports of biodiesel are on the rise, with the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany being the major players in international trade. Average prices for biodiesel import and export are also showing a gradual increase over the years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for biodiesel worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 58M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $82.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Biodiesel

In 2022, the amount of biodiesel consumed worldwide reduced to 40M tons, which is down by -3% compared with the previous year's figure. In general, the total consumption indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +72.2% against 2012 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 41M tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

The global biodiesel market revenue stood at $51.8B in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +32.7% against 2020 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Indonesia (6.4M tons), Brazil (5.6M tons) and the United States (5.6M tons), together comprising 44% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +24.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest biodiesel markets worldwide were Brazil ($6.6B), Indonesia ($5.8B) and the United States ($5.7B), together accounting for 35% of the global market.

Among the main consuming countries, Indonesia, with a CAGR of +22.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of biodiesel per capita consumption in 2022 were Sweden (69 kg per person), the Netherlands (68 kg per person) and France (48 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +22.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Biodiesel

In 2022, the amount of biodiesel produced worldwide fell to 42M tons, declining by -2.5% against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +81.4% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 18%. Global production peaked at 43M tons in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

In value terms, biodiesel production declined to $39B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +20.9% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the production volume increased by 42%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $45.7B, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Indonesia (6.8M tons), Brazil (5.7M tons) and the United States (5.6M tons), with a combined 43% share of global production. Germany, Spain, France, the Netherlands, Thailand, China, Argentina, Malaysia, Italy and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Malaysia (with a CAGR of +18.1%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Biodiesel

In 2022, approx. 21M tons of biodiesel were imported worldwide; growing by 13% on the previous year. In general, imports posted a buoyant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 33%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, biodiesel imports skyrocketed to $39.2B in 2022. Overall, imports showed a prominent expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 62% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (4.9M tons) and Belgium (3.6M tons) were the key importers of biodieselaround the world, together finishing at near 40% of total imports. It was distantly followed by France (1.8M tons), Germany (1.7M tons), Spain (1.5M tons), the UK (1.3M tons) and Italy (1.3M tons), together generating a 36% share of total imports. The United States (792K tons), Canada (676K tons), Bulgaria (644K tons), Poland (430K tons), Sweden (368K tons) and China (343K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +34.8%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest biodiesel importing markets worldwide were the Netherlands ($8.9B), Belgium ($6.3B) and France ($3.3B), together accounting for 47% of global imports. Germany, Spain, Italy, the UK, the United States, Canada, Bulgaria, Poland, Sweden and China lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 43%.

Among the main importing countries, China, with a CAGR of +34.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average biodiesel import price stood at $1,834 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 26% against the previous year. In general, the import price posted a perceptible expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 50% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Sweden ($2,067 per ton) and Canada ($2,006 per ton), while China ($1,412 per ton) and Bulgaria ($1,697 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Biodiesel

In 2022, global exports of biodiesel was estimated at 23M tons, picking up by 13% compared with 2021 figures. Over the period under review, exports posted prominent growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 36% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, biodiesel exports surged to $41.7B in 2022. Overall, exports recorded resilient growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 66%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (5.5M tons), distantly followed by Belgium (3.4M tons), Germany (2.7M tons), Spain (2.1M tons), China (1.8M tons) and Argentina (1.2M tons) were the major exporters of biodiesel, together creating 73% of total exports. The United States (834K tons), Bulgaria (701K tons), Italy (696K tons), France (492K tons), Malaysia (450K tons), Indonesia (436K tons) and the UK (396K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +181.3%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($10.7B), Belgium ($6.2B) and Germany ($5.2B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 53% of global exports. Spain, China, Argentina, the United States, Italy, Bulgaria, France, the UK, Malaysia and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 37%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, China, with a CAGR of +184.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average biodiesel export price amounted to $1,809 per ton, rising by 22% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate temperate growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 54%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,972 per ton), while Indonesia ($1,061 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia (+6.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform